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ImpactMojoPolitical Economy 101www.impactmojo.in
ImpactMojo 101 Series · Free Forever
Political
Economy
101
Who Gets What, When & How — a Foundational Course on Power, Institutions & Reform for Development Practitioners in South Asia
Theory-to-PracticeSouth Asia Focus100 SlidesFree Access
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What We Cover
01
What Is Political Economy?
Slides 3–10
02
Classical Roots
Slides 11–18
03
The State & the Market
Slides 19–27
04
Institutions Matter
Slides 28–35
05
Collective Action & Public Goods
Slides 36–44
06
Rents, Corruption & State Capture
Slides 45–53
07
The Political Economy of Development
Slides 54–62
08
Political Settlements & Power
Slides 63–71
09
Political Economy Analysis in Practice
Slides 72–80
10
Applying PEA
Slides 81–89
11
India / South Asia & Further Reading
Slides 90–99
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01
Section One
What Is Political Economy?
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Politics and economics are one system
Economics asks how scarce resources are allocated. Politics asks who holds power and how it is used. Political economy insists the two cannot be separated: markets are shaped by rules, and rules are shaped by power. For a practitioner, it is the study of why policies live or die.
Political economy
The study of how political power and economic forces interact to determine the production and distribution of resources — who gets what, who decides, and who is left out.
Economics alone asksPolitical economy adds
Is this efficient?Who wrote the rule?
What is the optimal tariff?Who benefits from the current one?
Why is this market failing?Who profits from the failure?
What should be done?Who could stop it?
The right-hand column is not cynicism. It is the set of questions that determine whether a technically correct answer will ever be implemented.
For a practitioner this is the difference between a good recommendation and a feasible one, and the gap between them is where most reform effort is lost.
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Who gets what, when, and how?
Politics is who gets what, when, how.
— Harold Lasswell, 1936
Lasswell's phrase is the whole field in one line. Every budget, subsidy, tariff and posting is an answer to it. Political economy reads the distribution behind the policy — and the power behind the distribution.
Every one of these answers LasswellBy deciding
A budget lineWho gets money
A subsidyWhich activity is cheap
A tariffWhich producers are protected
A postingWho holds discretion
A licenceWho may enter
Lasswell’s 1936 title is the whole field compressed, and reading routine administrative decisions as distributive ones is the habit this course is trying to build.
The addition worth making to the phrase is "and who decided" — the procedure is as revealing as the outcome.
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Good economics is not enough
Practitioners are puzzled when a technically sound reform — a cleaner subsidy, a better tariff, an honest procurement rule — is never adopted, or is adopted and quietly reversed. The reason is rarely ignorance. It is that the reform reshuffles winners and losers.
A reform is not just a technical proposal. It is a redistribution — and someone always stands to lose. They tend to be organised, and they tend to fight.
Reform stalls becauseNot because
Someone loses concentrated incomeNobody understood the economics
The losers are organisedThe evidence was weak
The winners are dispersedThe design was poor
The settlement cannot absorb itPolitical will was lacking
"Lack of political will" is a description of the outcome dressed as an explanation. Political economy replaces it with a question: whose will, and what would change it?
The useful reframing: assume everyone involved is behaving rationally given their incentives, then work out what those incentives are.
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Concentrated losses, diffuse gains
The losers
  • Few, identifiable, well-resourced
  • Lose a lot each — worth fighting for
  • Already organised to defend the status quo
The winners
  • Many, dispersed, often poor
  • Each gains a little — not worth organising
  • Rarely mobilised before the reform happens
When losses are concentrated and gains diffuse, the losers usually win the politics — even when the public would gain. This single asymmetry explains a great deal of policy.
LosersWinners
NumberFewMany
Stake eachLargeSmall
Organised?AlreadyRarely
Know who they are?YesOften not
Will act?CertainlySeldom
This asymmetry explains most policy persistence. A subsidy worth crores to twenty firms and a few rupees to a hundred million people has one organised constituency.
The operational implication runs through this course: the political-economy task is to organise the winners, or to compensate the losers.
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Explain the world, then judge it
Positive
What is and why: why a subsidy persists, how a cartel forms, who captures a regulator. Analytical, testable.
Normative
What ought to be: which distribution is fair, which policy is just. Value-laden, contestable.
Political economy is mostly positive — it explains why bad equilibria persist. But the questions it asks are driven by normative concern for who is left out.
Positive questionNormative question
Why does this subsidy persist?Should it exist?
Who captured this regulator?Is capture unjust?
How did this cartel form?What would be fair?
Keeping them separate is a discipline rather than a claim to neutrality: you can hold a strong normative position and still need an accurate positive account to act on it.
Confusing the two produces analysis that describes what should happen and calls it an explanation of what does.
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From households to the global order
01
MICRO: a household, a firm, a village commons
02
MESO: a sector, a regulator, a value chain
03
MACRO: the national state, fiscal & trade policy
04
GLOBAL: aid, debt, trade rules, capital flows
Power operates at every level. A well-designed scheme can still fail because of incentives three levels up.
LevelTypical questionTypical actor
MicroWho controls the village commons?Households, a user group
MesoWho captured this regulator?Firms, a ministry
MacroWhy this fiscal stance?The ruling coalition
GlobalWho sets the trade rule?States, IFIs
The same analytical questions recur at every level, which is what makes political economy portable across a village water committee and a trade negotiation.
Choose the level that matches your problem. A national analysis will not explain why one district’s scheme leaks.
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Political economy is a practitioner's tool
  • Diagnose why a reform you favour keeps stalling
  • Map who wins, who loses and who can block
  • Find feasible entry points instead of ideal ones
  • Avoid designs that ignore the incentives that will undo them
This course moves from theory (Sections 1–8) to practice (Sections 9–11). The theory exists to make you a sharper reader of power.
Use it toInstead of
Diagnose why a reform stallsRepeating the advocacy
Map who can blockAssuming goodwill
Find a feasible entry pointDesigning the ideal
Anticipate what will undo the designDiscovering it later
It is a practitioner’s tool rather than a theory to admire, and its test is whether it changes what you propose.
The honest risk, addressed in Section 9, is that it can also rationalise doing nothing. That is a misuse rather than a consequence.
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02
Section Two
Classical Roots
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Economics began as 'political economy'
Until the late 19th century, the discipline was called political economy — the study of how nations produce and distribute wealth, inseparable from the state. Smith, Ricardo, Malthus, Mill and Marx all wrote in this tradition before 'economics' narrowed the lens.
Today's revival of political economy is, in part, a return to those founders' broader question: not just how much is produced, but for whom, and under what rules.
Classical writers assumedModern economics separated
The state and the market are one subjectPolitics into political science
Distribution is centralEfficiency as the main question
Class is an analytic categoryThe representative agent
History mattersTimeless models
The renaming from political economy to economics in the late nineteenth century was a disciplinary move with intellectual consequences, not a simple shortening.
The recent revival — institutions, political settlements, behavioural work — is in large part a return to the questions the split had set aside.
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Adam Smith and the invisible hand
In The Wealth of Nations (1776), Adam Smith argued that individuals pursuing their own interest in competitive markets are led, as if by an invisible hand, to outcomes that serve society — without intending to.
It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer, or the baker that we expect our dinner, but from their regard to their own interest.
— Adam Smith, The Wealth of Nations, 1776
Smith arguedUnder conditions of
Self-interest can serve societyGenuine competition
The division of labour raises outputExtent of the market
Prices coordinate without a plannerFree entry
Not always — see monopolyWhich he warned about
The invisible hand appears once in The Wealth of Nations and is heavily conditioned. Smith’s argument depends on competition, not on self-interest alone.
Where competition is absent — a licensed monopoly, a captured regulator — Smith’s own analysis predicts the opposite outcome.
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The Smith most people forget
Smith is caricatured as a prophet of greed. In fact he distrusted merchants' conspiracies, warned against monopoly, supported public goods and education, and in The Theory of Moral Sentiments grounded markets in sympathy and justice.
The invisible hand works only under competition and fair rules. Smith knew the businessmen of his day would rig both if allowed. The qualification matters as much as the metaphor.
Smith actuallyThe caricature
Distrusted merchants’ conspiraciesCelebrated business
Warned against monopolyOpposed all regulation
Supported public educationOpposed public spending
Grounded markets in sympathyReduced people to self-interest
The Theory of Moral Sentiments (1759) precedes the Wealth of Nations and grounds the whole account in fellow-feeling, which the popular reading omits entirely.
His line about people of the same trade seldom meeting without the conversation ending in a conspiracy against the public is worth quoting when Smith is invoked against regulation.
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Ricardo and comparative advantage
Comparative advantage
David Ricardo's insight (1817): even a country worse at producing everything still gains from trade by specialising in what it produces relatively best, and trading for the rest.
It is the strongest case in economics for trade — both parties can gain. But Ricardo says nothing about how the gains are shared, or who bears the losses when an industry is wiped out. That silence is where political economy enters.
Comparative advantage saysIt does not say
Both countries can gain from tradeEveryone within them gains
Specialise where relatively bestWhich sectors will grow
Absolute disadvantage is not fatalAdjustment is costless
Aggregate output risesDistribution takes care of itself
The gains are aggregate and the losses are concentrated, which is the same asymmetry as Section 1 — and it is why trade liberalisation is politically hard everywhere.
The unstated assumption of costless adjustment is the one that fails: displaced workers do not move frictionlessly into the expanding sector.
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Marx: class, capital and critique
Karl Marx turned political economy into a critique of capitalism. He argued that profit comes from surplus value — the gap between the value workers produce and the wages they are paid — making class conflict structural, not accidental.
Surplus value
In Marx, the value created by labour beyond what is paid in wages, appropriated by the owners of capital. The source of profit — and, in Marx's view, of exploitation.
Marx’s claimWhat follows analytically
Profit comes from surplus valueClass conflict is structural
Capital concentratesMonopoly is a tendency, not an accident
Ideas follow material interestsExamine who benefits from a belief
Crisis is recurrentInstability is internal, not external
You do not have to accept the labour theory of value to use the analytical apparatus, and most contemporary political economy uses the second and third rows without the first.
The third row in particular is a standard move: when a policy idea is dominant, ask whose interest it serves before asking whether it is true.
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What survives of Marx for analysts
  • Material interests shape ideas and institutions, not the reverse
  • Class — who owns, who labours — structures conflict
  • Capital accumulation drives crisis, concentration and change
  • Ideology can make a particular interest look like the common good
You need not be a Marxist to use Marx. The habit of asking whose material interest does this serve? is core to any political-economy analysis.
Marxian toolUsed today in
Material interests shape ideasAnalysis of policy consensus
Class structures conflictLabour and land studies
Accumulation drives concentrationCompetition policy debates
Ideology as interestDiscourse analysis
These travel independently of the political programme, and they are used routinely by analysts who would not describe themselves as Marxist.
The first is the most portable: when an idea is taken as obvious, ask who benefits from it being taken that way.
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Smith, Ricardo, Marx side by side
SmithRicardoMarx
Core ideaMarkets coordinateGains from tradeClass & exploitation
The marketMostly benignMutually beneficialSite of conflict
Key conceptInvisible handComparative advantageSurplus value
DistributionSecondaryCentral (rent)The whole question
The stateRules & public goodsFree tradeInstrument of class
All three are alive in today's debates. Most policy arguments are, at root, arguments between these three.
SmithRicardoMarx
The market isA coordinatorMutually beneficialA site of conflict
Key conceptInvisible handComparative advantageSurplus value
DistributionA by-productSet by scarcityThe central question
All three are still in use. A modern trade argument runs on Ricardo, a competition argument on Smith, and an analysis of who captures the gains on Marx.
Knowing which one an argument is standing on is a fast way to see what it is assuming and what it has left out.
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03
Section Three
The State & the Market
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Markets and states need each other
The lazy debate pits 'free market' against 'big state'. The real question is the division of labour between them: markets are powerful coordinators, but they fail in predictable ways, and only collective authority can fix those failures.
There is no market without a state to define property, enforce contracts and issue money. The choice is never market or state — it is which mix, designed how.
The lazy questionThe real question
Market or state?Which does what, here?
More or less regulation?Which rule, enforced by whom?
Public or private delivery?Which failure is worse in this case?
Markets need states to define property, enforce contracts and issue currency. There is no market that precedes the rules constituting it, which makes the binary a category error.
The productive version compares two imperfect options in a specific setting rather than two ideal types in the abstract.
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When markets get it wrong
FailureWhat happensExample
Public goodsUnder-supplied — can't exclude free-ridersClean air, rural roads, defence
ExternalitiesCosts/benefits spill onto othersPollution, vaccination
Information gapsOne side knows moreInsurance, used goods, credit
Monopoly powerFew sellers set pricesUtilities, platforms
Missing marketsNo market exists at allInsurance for the very poor
Each failure is a reason for state action — but not a guarantee the state will do better. Government failure is real too.
FailureSouth Asian example
Public goodsRural roads; flood defence
ExternalitiesGroundwater depletion; stubble burning
Information asymmetryCredit markets; health care
Market powerMandi intermediaries; input dealers
Missing marketsCrop insurance for smallholders
Each of these is a technical diagnosis with a political consequence: someone currently profits from the failure, and that someone will resist the correction.
Groundwater is the hardest case in the region, because the externality is invisible, the users are millions, and electricity pricing subsidises the extraction.
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What the state is for
  • Set the rules: property rights, contracts, courts, money
  • Provide public goods: infrastructure, defence, basic research
  • Correct externalities: tax the bad, subsidise the good
  • Redistribute: taxes and transfers for equity
  • Stabilise: manage the macroeconomy and crises
Every one of these can be done well or badly — and who captures the state decides which.
State roleFails when
Set the rulesCourts are slow or captured
Provide public goodsCapacity is absent
Correct externalitiesThe polluter is politically strong
RedistributeThe tax base is narrow
StabiliseFiscal space is exhausted
Each row is a capability rather than an intention, and a state may be committed to all five while being able to deliver two.
The third row is where political economy bites hardest: correcting an externality means imposing a concentrated cost on someone identifiable.
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The state can fail too
Why states fail
  • Capture by organised interests
  • Information the centre cannot have
  • Weak capacity to implement
  • Officials' own incentives diverge
The honest balance
The mature question is not 'market or state?' but 'given that both fail, which failure is cheaper to fix here, for this problem?'
State failure sourceShows as
Capture by organised interestsRules that serve incumbents
Information the centre lacksTargeting errors
Weak implementation capacityPolicy on paper only
Officials’ own incentivesBehaviour the org chart does not predict
The mature question is comparative: given this specific failure, which imperfect institution — market, state, community — handles it least badly here?
Ostrom’s work, later in this course, adds a third option that the market-or-state framing omits entirely: collective governance by users.
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Polanyi: the great transformation
In The Great Transformation (1944), Karl Polanyi argued that the 19th-century attempt to create a self-regulating market — treating land, labour and money as ordinary commodities — was a radical, destabilising experiment, not a natural order.
To allow the market mechanism to be sole director of the fate of human beings would result in the demolition of society.
— Karl Polanyi, The Great Transformation, 1944
Polanyi’s fictitious commoditiesBecause
LandIt is nature, not produced for sale
LabourIt is people, not produced for sale
MoneyIt is a token of purchasing power
Treating these three as ordinary commodities is the move Polanyi calls radical, and his claim is that societies resist it because the consequences are unbearable.
The Great Transformation (1944) was written during the war and reads it as the outcome of that experiment. Its argument is historical rather than theoretical.
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Markets are embedded in society
Embeddedness
Polanyi's claim that economic activity is always enmeshed in social relations, norms and institutions. The 'free market' disembedded from society is an artificial — and unsustainable — construction.
Land is not just an asset; it is a place people belong to. Labour is not just a commodity; it is human lives. Pretending otherwise provokes a reaction.
Embeddedness meansSo a policy that
Markets rest on social relationsIgnores norms will misfire
Norms and trust make exchange possibleAssumes anonymity is wrong here
Institutions precede the marketDeregulates may destroy the substrate
In South Asian markets the embedding is highly visible: caste, kinship and long-standing credit relationships structure who trades with whom on what terms.
A design assuming arms-length transactions between strangers will encounter the actual market, which runs on obligation and information held in networks.
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The double movement
Market expansioncommodify land, labour, moneySocial protectiondemands to re-embedthe "double movement": expansion provokes counter-movement
Polanyi's pattern recurs: each push to marketise provokes demands for protection — from labour laws to farm-loan waivers to MGNREGA. Read backlash as a double movement, not just 'populism'.
MovementDirection
MarketisationCommodify land, labour, money
Counter-movementDemands to re-embed and protect
ResultNeither pure market nor pure protection
Polanyi’s pattern is descriptive rather than normative: it says to expect the counter-movement, not that it will produce a good outcome.
He also noted that counter-movements can take illiberal forms. The reaction to disembedding is not guaranteed to be progressive.
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The double movement in South Asia
India's 1991 liberalisation expanded markets; the subsequent decades brought a counter-movement of rights-based guarantees — NREGA, the Right to Food, the Forest Rights Act. The 2020–21 farm-law repeal was a vivid double movement in real time.
Practitioner lesson: a reform that disembeds too fast — removing protections faster than society will bear — generates the very backlash that reverses it.
ExpansionCounter-movement
1991 liberalisationRights-based guarantees
Market access to landForest Rights Act
Deregulated labourEmployment guarantee
2020 farm lawsProtest and repeal
The 2020-21 farm laws and their repeal is the clearest recent illustration of Polanyi’s pattern in India: a marketising reform meeting an organised counter-movement.
The pattern does not tell you which side is right. It tells you to expect a counter-movement and to plan for it rather than treating it as an obstacle.
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04
Section Four
Institutions Matter
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Why are some countries rich?
Not geography, not culture, not natural resources alone. The dominant modern answer is institutions — the rules, written and unwritten, that shape incentives to invest, innovate and cooperate. Get the rules wrong and no amount of aid or advice sticks.
This is the most influential idea in development economics of the last forty years — and the most useful for a practitioner diagnosing why a programme underperforms.
ExplanationProblem with it
GeographyCannot explain divergence between neighbours
CultureCultures change; rankings do not follow
ResourcesResource-rich countries often do worse
InstitutionsThe dominant answer — with its own problems
The institutional turn is now mainstream in development economics and is not settled: its critics point at circularity and at cases it handles badly.
For a practitioner, the useful content is not the grand explanation but the mid-level one: rules shape incentives, and incentives shape what people actually do.
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North: institutions as the rules of the game
Institutions
Douglass North: the humanly devised constraints that structure political, economic and social interaction — the 'rules of the game' in a society. Both formal (laws, constitutions) and informal (norms, conventions).
North founded New Institutional Economics. His insight: institutions reduce uncertainty and transaction costs. Where property is secure and contracts enforced, people invest for the long run.
Institution typeExampleChanges
FormalLaws, constitutions, contractsBy decision, quickly
InformalNorms, conventions, patronageSlowly, if at all
North’s emphasis on the informal is what makes the framework useful in South Asia, where the gap between the written rule and the operating rule is often the whole story.
Changing a law is a decision; changing the norm it runs into is a much longer project, and reforms that confuse the two fail predictably.
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The rules, the players, the referee
Institutions
The rules of the game: laws, property rights, electoral systems, norms. Slow to change, deeply consequential.
Organisations
The players: firms, parties, agencies, NGOs. They form to exploit the rules — and lobby to change them.
Confusing the two is a common error. Building a new agency (a player) rarely fixes a problem rooted in the rules.
InstitutionsOrganisations
AreThe rulesThe players
ExamplesProperty law, electoral rulesFirms, parties, NGOs
ChangeSlowlyConstantly
InterestNone of their ownShape rules to suit them
The distinction matters operationally: strengthening an organisation does not change the rules it operates under, and most capacity building targets the wrong layer.
Organisations that prosper under a set of rules become the constituency defending those rules, which is how institutions persist past their usefulness.
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Inclusive vs extractive institutions
In Why Nations Fail (2012), Daron Acemoglu & James Robinson argue prosperity turns on whether institutions are inclusive — broad rights, level playing field — or extractive — designed to funnel wealth and power to a narrow elite.
Acemoglu, Robinson and Simon Johnson shared the 2024 Nobel Prize in Economics for this body of work on institutions and prosperity.
Inclusive institutionsExtractive institutions
Reward innovationFear it
Allow entryProtect incumbents
Broad property rightsElite property rights
Constrain the executiveConcentrate power
The argument’s mechanism is creative destruction: extractive elites block innovation because new entrants threaten their position, so growth stalls.
It is a strong claim and it is contested. Read the critique slide alongside it rather than taking the binary at face value.
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Inclusive vs extractive, compared
InclusiveExtractive
Who participatesBroad mass of peopleA narrow elite
Property rightsSecure for manySecure only for the elite
Entry & competitionOpenBlocked to protect incumbents
Incentive to investStrong, widespreadWeak for outsiders
Political powerPluralist, constrainedConcentrated, absolutist
Long-run resultInnovation & growthStagnation & capture
Their claim: economic and political institutions reinforce each other. Extractive politics protects extractive economics — a trap that is hard to escape.
InclusiveExtractive
Who participatesBroadlyA narrow elite
Property rightsSecure for manySecure for the elite
EntryOpenBlocked
Investment incentiveStrongWeak for outsiders
InnovationRewardedThreatening
The mechanism is creative destruction: extractive elites resist innovation because it threatens their position, which is a specific and testable claim.
The binary is also its weakness. Most real institutional configurations are mixed, and calling a country extractive explains less than identifying which specific rule blocks entry.
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Institutions track with prosperity
Institutional quality vs income per person, across countries
Illustrative scatter, patterned on cross-country evidence
A strong positive pattern — but illustrative. And correlation is not causation: do good institutions cause wealth, or does wealth buy good institutions? The debate is live.
The correlation is strongThe causal question is not settled
Better institutions, higher incomeWhich causes which?
Persistent over timeOr a third factor drives both
Robust to controlsMeasurement is partly circular
The identification strategies in this literature — settler mortality, legal origins — are ingenious and have all been contested on their own terms.
For a practitioner the causal dispute matters less than the mid-level claim: specific rules shape specific incentives, and those are observable locally.
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Where the institutions story strains
  • Tautology risk: 'good institutions' can be defined by the outcomes they're meant to explain
  • How to change them? The theory explains traps better than exits
  • China & East Asia: grew fast with 'extractive'-looking politics
  • Informal rules often matter more than the formal ones measured
Institutions matter — but 'just fix the institutions' is advice, not a plan. The next sections ask how rules actually change.
CritiqueSubstance
Tautology riskGood institutions defined by good outcomes
No theory of changeExplains traps better than exits
China and East AsiaGrew fast without inclusive politics
AggregationA country score hides variation within it
The third row is the most-discussed counter-case and has produced substantial argument about whether it is an exception or a refutation.
For a practitioner the second matters most: a framework that tells you which institutions are good and not how to get them is limited operationally, which is why Section 8 exists.
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05
Section Five
Collective Action & Public Goods
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Why don't people who share an interest act?
Millions of consumers would gain from cheaper, cleaner policy; a handful of producers gain from the status quo. Yet the producers win. Why do large groups with a common interest so often fail to act on it? This is the collective action problem.
It is one of the most useful ideas a practitioner can hold. It explains why the many are out-organised by the few — again and again.
GroupPer-member stakeOutcome
Twenty producersLargeOrganised; wins
A hundred million consumersTinyUnorganised; loses
The puzzle only looks like a puzzle if you assume shared interest produces action. Olson’s contribution was to show that it usually does not.
This is the single most useful idea in the course for explaining why a policy that harms almost everyone a little can survive indefinitely.
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Olson: the logic of collective action
In The Logic of Collective Action (1965), Mancur Olson showed that rational individuals will free-ride on a shared benefit rather than pay to provide it — so large groups under-provide their own collective goods unless specially organised.
Free-riding
Enjoying a collective benefit without contributing to its cost. Because one can benefit whether or not one pays, the individually rational choice is to let others bear the burden — so the good is under-supplied.
Olson’s logicConsequence
The benefit is non-excludableYou gain whether or not you contribute
Contribution is costlyRational to free-ride
Everyone reasons the same wayThe good is under-provided
Unless something changes the incentiveSelective incentives, coercion, small size
The argument is about rational individuals, not apathy, which is why exhortation and awareness campaigns do not solve it.
The solutions all work by changing the individual’s calculus rather than their beliefs, which is the practical lesson for anyone organising a diffuse group.
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Why small groups out-organise large ones
Small group
  • Each member's share is large
  • Free-riders are visible & shamed
  • Easy to coordinate and monitor
Large group
  • Each member's share is tiny
  • One defector goes unnoticed
  • Coordination is costly — so few try
Olson's paradox: a small group of industrialists will reliably lobby; millions of dispersed taxpayers or consumers rarely will. Concentrated interests beat diffuse ones.
Small groupLarge group
Each share is largeEach share is tiny
Free-riders are visibleDefection goes unnoticed
Coordination is cheapCoordination is costly
ActsDoes not
Olson’s prediction is counter-intuitive and holds up: the small group with less at stake in aggregate reliably beats the large group with more.
Every effective mass organisation solves this somehow — by selective incentives, by compulsion, or by federating small units. None of them solves it by appeal.
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How collective action is solved
  • Selective incentives: private rewards for members only (union benefits, a co-op's services)
  • Coercion: compulsory dues, mandatory membership
  • Small size or federation: nest large groups inside small ones
  • Leadership & identity: entrepreneurs who supply organisation
Effective movements — trade unions, SEWA, farmer associations — succeed by giving members something only members get, not by appeals to the common good alone.
SolutionReal example
Selective incentivesA union’s benefits; an SHG’s credit
CoercionCompulsory dues; mandatory membership
FederationSHG to village organisation to block federation
Leadership and entrepreneursSomeone bears the start-up cost
Small sizeTen to twenty members
Federation is the design that reconciles Olson with scale: small groups where monitoring works, nested into larger structures where bargaining power lives.
That is exactly the architecture of India’s SHG movement, and it is why the model scales where a mass membership organisation would not.
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The tragedy of the commons
A shared, finite resource — a grazing pasture, a groundwater aquifer, a fishery — tends to be over-used when each user gains the full benefit of taking more but shares the cost of depletion. Garrett Hardin called this the tragedy of the commons (1968).
South Asia's falling water tables are a textbook commons tragedy: each farmer's borewell is rational; the collapsing aquifer is catastrophic for all.
Hardin’s model assumesWhich is often false
Open access to anyoneMost commons have boundaries
No communication among usersUsers talk constantly
No rules or sanctionsLocal rules usually exist
Purely individual calculationReputation matters
Hardin described an open-access resource with no governance and called it a commons, which conflated two different things and shaped policy for decades.
The policy consequence was real: the model was used to justify privatisation and state takeover of resources that communities had been managing.
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Ostrom: governing the commons
Elinor Ostrom showed Hardin was not destiny. Across forests, fisheries and irrigation systems worldwide, communities do govern commons sustainably — without either privatisation or top-down state control. She won the 2009 Nobel Prize in Economics.
There is no reason to believe that bureaucrats and politicians... are any more motivated to achieve the public interest than are... ordinary citizens.
— Elinor Ostrom
Ostrom showedAgainst the assumption that
Communities do govern commonsOnly privatisation or the state works
They design their own rulesRules must come from outside
Some systems last centuriesDegradation is inevitable
Success has identifiable featuresIt is idiosyncratic
Her evidence base was empirical and comparative — irrigation systems, forests and fisheries across many countries — rather than theoretical, which is why it was persuasive.
She won the Nobel Memorial Prize in 2009, the first woman to do so in economics, for exactly this body of work.
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Eight design principles for the commons
  • Clear boundaries — who may use it
  • Rules fit local conditions
  • Users help make the rules
  • Monitoring by accountable monitors
  • Graduated sanctions for breaches
  • Cheap, accessible conflict resolution
  • Right to self-organise is recognised
  • Nested governance for large systems
Notice: these are institutional design rules. Ostrom's commons work and North's institutions are the same insight from two directions — rules shape cooperation.
PrincipleThe question to ask
Clear boundariesWho may use it, and who decides?
Rules fit conditionsWere they made here?
Users make the rulesCan they change them?
Accountable monitoringWho watches, answerable to whom?
Graduated sanctionsIs a first offence treated as a fifth?
Cheap conflict resolutionIs there a fast local forum?
The seventh and eighth principles — recognised right to organise, and nested enterprises for larger systems — are about the relationship with the state above the community.
Graduated sanctions is the one most often missing in designed institutions, which typically have either no enforcement or a single penalty nobody will apply.
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Commons governance in South Asia
  • Joint Forest Management and community forest rights under the FRA
  • Pani panchayats and water-user associations for irrigation
  • Fishery cooperatives managing access and seasons
  • Self-help groups pooling savings and enforcing repayment
Ostrom's lesson for practitioners: don't assume the only options are privatise or nationalise. Well-designed collective institutions are often the durable answer.
South Asian commons institutionOstrom principle most at risk
Joint Forest ManagementUsers making the rules
Water user associationsBoundaries; tail-end access
Fishery cooperativesMonitoring and sanctions
Self-help groupsWorking — the model fits well
JFM is the standard critique case: the community manages and the forest department retains the rule-making authority, which violates the third principle.
The Forest Rights Act’s community forest resource provisions were designed to address exactly that, and their implementation has been uneven.
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06
Section Six
Rents, Corruption & State Capture
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What economists mean by 'rent'
Economic rent
Income earned above what is needed to keep a resource in its current use — a surplus created not by adding value but by scarcity, position or privilege (a licence, a monopoly, a connection).
Not all rent is bad: a temporary innovation rent rewards risk. The danger is rent created by artificial scarcity — a permit you must bribe for, a quota only insiders get.
Rent fromProductive?
A monopoly licenceNo
A patent on a real inventionArguably — it rewards innovation
Location of landNo, but taxable
Scarce skillPartly
A political connectionNo
Khan’s work makes the case that some rents are developmental — learning rents that let an infant industry acquire capability — which complicates the standard verdict.
The distinguishing question is whether the rent is conditional on performance. An unconditional rent is a transfer; a conditional one may buy something.
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Spending resources to capture rents
Rent-seeking
Using resources to obtain an unearned share of existing wealth — lobbying for a licence, a tariff, a subsidy — rather than creating new wealth. The effort is pure social waste.
When the most profitable activity is capturing favours rather than serving customers, talent and capital flow to lobbying, not production. The whole economy is poorer for it.
Rent-seeking effort goes intoInstead of
Lobbying for a licenceImproving the product
Cultivating an officialCutting costs
Litigating to block entryCompeting on price
Capturing a subsidyRaising productivity
Tullock’s insight was that the waste is not only the transfer but the resources spent competing for it, which are pure social loss.
When the highest returns in an economy come from proximity to the state rather than from production, the best talent goes there. That is the deeper cost.
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A South Asian case: the Licence Raj
India's pre-1991 Licence Raj required permits for capacity, imports and expansion. The system created vast rents: a licence was worth a fortune, so firms competed to win permits rather than win markets.
Classic rent-seeking equilibrium: scarce permits + discretionary officials = bribery, delay, and entrepreneurs who succeeded by working the ministry, not the market.
Licence Raj createdEffect
Permits for capacity and importsA licence was worth a fortune
Discretion in granting themCompetition to influence, not to produce
Protection from entryIncumbents secure, quality low
Long approval chainsDelay as a bargaining asset
The system is the textbook case of manufactured scarcity generating rents, and it is a domestic example rather than an imported illustration.
1991 removed much of the permit structure. Where discretion remains — land, mining, spectrum, environmental clearance — the same logic operates.
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Corruption: types and logics
TypeWhat it isExample
PettySmall bribes for routine serviceSpeed money for a certificate
GrandLarge-scale theft at the topRigged mega-contracts
BureaucraticOfficials extract from citizensInspector demands a cut
PoliticalFunds & favours for powerDonations for policy
State captureRules themselves boughtLaws written for one firm
Corruption is not random vice — it is a system of incentives. Anti-corruption that ignores the incentives just moves the bribe.
TypeWhere it bitesWhat reduces it
PettyFrontline service deliveryRemoving discretion; digitisation
GrandLarge contractsTransparency; competitive process
BureaucraticInspection and licensingFewer approvals; clear rules
PoliticalRule-making itselfParty finance reform
The four have different mechanisms and different remedies, which is why a single anti-corruption agency rarely addresses more than one of them.
Petty corruption is the most visible and the most tractable; political corruption is the least visible and shapes everything else.
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When the rules themselves are captured
State capture
When private interests so dominate the making of laws, regulations and appointments that the state's rules are shaped to serve them — corruption moved upstream, into the design of the system itself.
This is the most dangerous form: not breaking the rules, but writing them. Once captured, a state can look clean on paper while serving a narrow elite by design.
Ordinary corruptionState capture
Breaking the ruleWriting the rule
Detectable as a violationPerfectly legal
Addressed by enforcementEnforcement is irrelevant
A bribeA tailored regulation
Capture is the harder problem precisely because nothing illegal occurs: the outcome is a lawful rule that happens to serve one interest.
The tells are procedural — who drafted it, who was consulted, what the exemptions look like — rather than evidential in the criminal sense.
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Elite capture of programmes
Even well-meant programmes are vulnerable. Elite capture occurs when local powerful groups divert benefits — subsidised inputs, scheme funds, the best plots — meant for the poor.
A targeting scheme can have flawless rules and still fail if the village elite control the list. Always ask: who administers this, and what stops them capturing it?
Capture routeCounter
The list is made locallyRead it aloud publicly
Selection is discretionaryObjective, published criteria
Information is held by one personPublish entitlements
Grievances go to the captorAn independent route
Flawless rules and captured implementation is the standard pattern, which is why anti-capture design is procedural rather than a matter of writing better rules.
The public reading of beneficiary lists — the core of the social audit — is the single most effective measure in this list.
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Patronage and clientelism
Patronage
Jobs, contracts and transfers handed out as favours to supporters, not by rule. Loyalty is rewarded; rules bend.
Clientelism
A standing exchange: politicians deliver targeted goods (a road, a ration card) for reliable votes. Benefits are contingent on support.
Clientelism is not simply 'bad' — for many poor voters it is the only credible way to get the state to deliver. Understand its logic before trying to replace it.
PatronageClientelism
ExchangeFavour for loyaltyGoods for votes, ongoing
Time horizonEpisodicStanding relationship
TargetsIndividuals and networksGroups and localities
UnderminesMerit and rulesProgrammatic politics
Both are rational responses to weak state capacity: where a rule-based entitlement is unreliable, a personal connection is a better bet for the voter.
That is why transparency and automatic entitlement reduce clientelism more effectively than moral appeals: they make the rule-based route actually work.
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What actually reduces rents
  • Remove the scarcity: abolish needless permits & discretion
  • Transparency: open data, RTI, social audits, beneficiary lists
  • Rules over discretion: auctions, lotteries, automatic entitlement
  • Competition: let entrants erode incumbents' rents
  • Direct delivery: bypass intermediaries who capture (DBT)
India's shift to Direct Benefit Transfers is, in political-economy terms, an attack on the intermediaries who lived off the leakage.
InstrumentRemoves
Abolish needless permitsThe scarcity itself
Auctions and lotteriesDiscretion
Automatic entitlementThe gatekeeper
Transparency and social auditConcealment
CompetitionThe monopoly rent
The first row is the most effective and the least used: a rent created by an artificial scarcity disappears when the scarcity does.
Enforcement-heavy approaches attack the last stage. Removing discretion attacks the first, and it does not depend on the enforcers being honest.
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07
Section Seven
The Political Economy of Development
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Why do some late developers catch up?
After 1945, a few economies — Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, later China — transformed from poor to rich in a generation, while others stagnated. The political economy of development asks what kind of state made the difference.
The answer was not simply 'free markets'. It was a particular relationship between state and capital — the developmental state.
Late developer questionWhat varies
Did the state steer?Capacity and autonomy
Was support conditional?Reciprocity, or a gift
Was there a bureaucracy?Merit recruitment
Were rents disciplined?Performance conditions
The comparative literature does not find that successful late developers had smaller states. It finds they had states that could impose conditions on business and enforce them.
That capability is the scarce ingredient rather than the policy list, which is why the policies transplant badly.
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The East Asian developmental state
Developmental state
A state that actively steers economic transformation — disciplining and supporting industry, picking sectors, tying subsidies to performance — through a capable, relatively autonomous bureaucracy.
Chalmers Johnson (Japan) and later Alice Amsden (Korea) and Robert Wade (Taiwan) documented states that did not just fix market failures but governed the market toward industrialisation.
Developmental state featureRequires
Steering sectorsInformation about them
Disciplining firmsAutonomy from them
A capable bureaucracyMerit recruitment and career stability
Long horizonsPolitical stability
The requirements are demanding and interlocking, which is why the model has been so hard to reproduce despite being extensively studied.
Note the tension in the first two rows: you need to be close enough to know and distant enough to say no. That is the subject of the embedded-autonomy slide.
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Subsidies with strings: reciprocity
The key was reciprocal control: the state gave firms cheap credit and protection, but only if they hit hard export targets. Underperformers lost support. Subsidy was a contract, not a gift.
Contrast with rent-seeking: same tools (subsidy, protection), opposite outcome. The difference is whether the state can discipline the recipients — or is captured by them.
Reciprocal control meansContrast with
Support tied to export targetsUnconditional protection
Underperformers lose supportPermanent infant industry
Measurable performance criteriaDiscretionary favour
A contract, in effectA gift
Export targets worked as a discipline because they were externally verifiable: a firm cannot lobby a foreign customer into buying its output.
That verifiability is the transferable design principle. Any conditional subsidy needs a performance measure the recipient cannot manipulate.
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Embedded autonomy
Embedded autonomy
Peter Evans's term for the developmental state's balance: bureaucrats are connected to business enough to gather information and coordinate, yet autonomous enough not to be captured by it.
Too autonomous and the state is blind; too embedded and it is captured. South Asia's challenge has often been the wrong mix — close ties without the autonomy to discipline.
Too autonomousToo embeddedEmbedded autonomy
No information about industryCaptured by itInformed and independent
Policy misses the markPolicy serves incumbentsPolicy disciplines
Evans’s formulation names a balance rather than a quantity, which is why "more state capacity" or "closer to business" are both incomplete prescriptions.
In practice the balance is maintained by institutional design: rotation, merit recruitment, and formal consultation rather than informal access.
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The paradox of plenty
Counter-intuitively, resource-rich countries often grow slower and govern worse. Oil, gas and minerals generate huge rents that detach rulers from citizens, fuel conflict, and crowd out other industry. This is the resource curse.
  • Rents finance the state without taxing citizens → less accountability
  • A currency boom makes other exports uncompetitive (Dutch disease)
  • The prize of capturing rents fuels conflict and corruption
Resource-curse mechanismHow it operates
Rents detach rulers from taxpayersNo need to bargain for revenue
Currency appreciationOther exports become uncompetitive
VolatilityFiscal planning collapses
Conflict over the rentSomething worth capturing
The first row is the political mechanism and the most important: a state funded by resource rents does not need its citizens’ consent to raise money.
That is the mirror image of the domestic-revenue argument elsewhere in this series — taxation builds accountability, and rents remove the need for it.
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Rents can crowd out accountability
Resource rents (% of GDP) vs governance quality — illustrative pattern
Illustrative — schematic of the resource-curse argument
The downward pattern is the resource-curse claim — illustrative, not real data. Note the exceptions (Norway, Botswana): institutions can break the curse.
Resource rents riseAnd typically
Non-resource exports fallCurrency appreciation
Tax effort fallsRevenue arrives without bargaining
The pattern is contested in the econometrics and better established in the political mechanisms.
Escape cases — Norway, Botswana — are explained by institutions in place before the resource.
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Running out of road too soon
Premature deindustrialisation
Dani Rodrik's observation that today's developing countries see manufacturing's share of jobs and output peak at a much lower income than earlier industrialisers — then decline before the country is rich.
This is acute for South Asia: services and informal work absorb labour leaving farms, but the high-productivity manufacturing path that lifted East Asia is narrowing. The escalator is shorter than it used to be.
Earlier industrialisersToday’s developing countries
Manufacturing peaked at high incomePeaks at much lower income
A long factory phaseA short one, or none
Mass absorption of low-skill labourFewer such jobs available
Productivity growth through industryServices with weaker spillovers
Rodrik’s observation is empirical and its causes are debated — automation, global competition, trade openness — but the pattern itself is well documented.
It matters for South Asia because the standard development route, moving workers from farms to factories, may not be available at the scale it was for East Asia.
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South Asia's distinctive trajectory
  • Services-led growth (IT, finance) without a mass factory phase
  • A vast informal sector — most workers, little protection
  • Strong democracy, but a state often embedded without autonomy
  • Welfare politics filling the gap manufacturing jobs did not fill
South Asia is neither East Asia nor a resource-curse case. Its political economy is its own — democratic, informal, and fiercely contested. The later sections turn to it directly.
South Asian featurePolitical-economy consequence
Services-led growthSkill-biased; limited absorption
A vast informal sectorEntitlements cannot run through employers
Democratic competitionWelfare expands; reform is harder
Embedded without autonomyBusiness access without discipline
The fourth row is the sharpest contrast with East Asia: close state-business relations without the reciprocal conditions that made them developmental there.
Welfare politics filling the gap, in the third row, is a rational political response to growth that has not generated enough good jobs.
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08
Section Eight
Political Settlements & Power
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Why 'best-practice' reforms keep failing
Donors export the institutions of rich countries — independent regulators, merit bureaucracies, anti-corruption agencies — and watch them wither. The institutions are real on paper but powerless in practice. Why?
Because institutions sit on top of an underlying distribution of power. Graft a new rule onto an unchanged balance of power and the power, not the rule, prevails.
Transplanted institutionWhy it withers
Independent regulatorNo power base to defend its independence
Merit bureaucracyPostings remain a political resource
Anti-corruption agencyIt threatens the coalition that funds politics
Procurement rulesThe discretion is the point
The institution is real on paper and powerless in practice, which is a pattern consistent enough to have a name — isomorphic mimicry, in Section 10.
The question the next slides answer is why. Khan’s answer is that institutions survive only if the underlying distribution of power can live with them.
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Khan: the political settlement
Political settlement
Mushtaq Khan: the underlying balance or distribution of power between contending groups in a society, and the institutions that are compatible with it. Institutions survive only if they are consistent with this balance.
Khan's key move: stop asking 'are these the right institutions?' and start asking 'are these institutions compatible with how power is actually distributed here?'
A political settlement isIt determines
The balance of power between groupsWhich institutions are enforceable
Not a formal agreementWhat reform can stick
Historically producedWhat is feasible now
Slowly changingThe horizon of reform
Khan’s framework explains institutional failure without blaming implementation: a rule inconsistent with the power distribution will be evaded whatever the enforcement effort.
The practical instruction is to check compatibility before designing: who would have to accept a loss, and can they impose costs if they refuse?
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Holding power decides what sticks
Holding power
A group's capacity to benefit itself in conflicts — its ability to fight, disrupt, withhold cooperation or impose costs. It comes from organisation, wealth, numbers or violence, and need not match formal authority.
A reform that hurts a group with strong holding power will be blocked, diluted or reversed — whatever the law says. Map holding power before you map the law.
Holding power comes fromWhich need not match
OrganisationFormal authority
WealthLegal standing
NumbersOfficial position
Capacity for disruptionAny of the above
A group with no formal role can hold substantial power if it can disrupt — a transport union, an association of intermediaries, a caste organisation with electoral weight.
Mapping holding power rather than formal authority is what makes a stakeholder analysis predictive rather than descriptive.
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Power, institutions and outcomes
Distributionof powerInstitutions(formal & informal)Economicoutcomesoutcomes reshape power — the settlement evolvesinstitutions stick only if compatible with the power below them
Read left to right, then the feedback loop: power shapes institutions, institutions shape outcomes, and outcomes feed back to reshape power. Reform enters this loop — it does not float above it.
Read the diagramAnd note
Power shapes institutionsNot the reverse, initially
Institutions shape outcomesWhere they are enforceable
Outcomes reshape powerThe settlement evolves
The loop is slowReform horizons are long
The feedback arrow is what makes the framework dynamic rather than fatalistic: outcomes change the distribution of power, so settlements do shift.
That is where reform effort can be directed — at changing who holds power, rather than only at the rules that the current holders will not accept.
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The unwritten rules that really bind
Informal institutions — norms, conventions, networks of caste, kin and patronage — often govern behaviour more powerfully than the formal law. A bribe norm, a caste hierarchy, an understanding about 'whose turn' it is can override any statute.
Practitioners who design only for the formal rules are repeatedly ambushed by the informal ones. Map both.
Informal ruleOverrides
Bribe normsThe fee schedule
Caste hierarchyEqual access provisions
Understandings about postingsMerit rules
Whose turn it isThe selection criteria
The recurring finding in political-economy analysis is that the informal rules are the binding ones, and formal reform that does not engage them produces paper compliance.
You can only find these by asking people who operate the system, in confidence. They are not written anywhere and everyone involved knows them.
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The anatomy of a stalled reform
The reform aims to…But the settlement…So…
Remove a subsidyEmpowers those who capture itIt is restored after protests
Build merit hiringRests on patronage networksPostings stay political
Empower a regulatorFavours the firms regulatedThe regulator is captured
Target the poorRuns through local elitesBenefits leak upward
In each case the reform is technically fine and politically dead. The settlement, not the design, is the binding constraint.
Reform aims toThe settlementSo
Remove a subsidyEmpowers those who capture itIt returns after protest
Build merit hiringRests on patronagePostings stay political
Empower a regulatorDepends on the regulatedIt is starved or staffed loyally
Digitise to remove discretionDiscretion is the resourceA parallel process appears
Reading these as failures of implementation misses the mechanism. Each outcome is the predictable result of a rule that conflicts with the underlying distribution of power.
The fourth row is worth watching in current practice: digitisation removes some discretion and often relocates it rather than eliminating it.
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Working with the settlement, not against it
Khan's framework is not counsel of despair. It directs effort to reforms that are compatible with the existing balance — or that shift it gradually — rather than ideal reforms that the powerful will simply kill.
Sometimes the win is to channel rents toward productive ends (as East Asia did), not to abolish them frontally. Feasible and second-best can beat ideal and dead.
Work with the settlement byRather than
Finding reforms compatible with itIdeal reforms it will reject
Shifting the balance graduallyConfronting it head-on
Building the constituency firstLegislating and hoping
Taking a small feasible winA comprehensive package
This is not counsel of despair. It is a redirection of effort toward what can hold, and toward changing the power distribution where that is possible.
It also has a risk, which the framework’s critics press: working with the settlement can mean accommodating an unjust one. Naming that trade-off is part of using it honestly.
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Types of political settlement
More inclusive / stable
Power broadly shared, ruling coalition wide, longer horizons. Easier to make credible long-term commitments and discipline rent recipients.
Narrow / contested
Power concentrated or fiercely fought over, short horizons, weak commitment. Reforms are fragile; rents buy short-term loyalty.
Diagnosing which settlement you are in tells you which reforms are even possible. This is the bridge to PEA.
Broad settlementNarrow or contested
PowerWidely sharedConcentrated or fought over
HorizonsLongerShort
CommitmentsMore credibleHard to make credible
Rent disciplinePossibleDifficult
Credible long-term commitment is the capability that broad settlements have and narrow ones lack, and it is what allows a state to promise a firm anything beyond the current government.
Where the settlement is contested, expect short-horizon behaviour from everyone, including officials. It is a rational response to uncertainty about who will be in charge.
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09
Section Nine
Political Economy Analysis in Practice
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What is Political Economy Analysis?
Political Economy Analysis (PEA)
A structured way to understand how power, interests and institutions shape a development problem — so that programmes are designed for the world as it is, not as it should be.
PEA took the theory of Sections 1–8 and turned it into a practical diagnostic now used across DFID/FCDO, the World Bank, USAID and many NGOs. It is the working analyst's main political-economy tool.
PEA producesIt does not produce
A map of interests and powerA prediction
Feasible entry pointsA guarantee
An account of why a reform stallsPermission to stop trying
A design fitted to the real worldA neutral analysis
PEA became a standard donor product in the 2000s and produced a great deal of shelf-ware before the shift to problem-driven work described on the next slide.
Its value depends entirely on whether it changes a design decision. A PEA annexed to an unchanged programme document has done nothing.
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Problem-driven, not country-wide
Early PEA produced sweeping country studies that sat on shelves. The influential shift — led by analysts like David Booth — was to problem-driven PEA: start from a specific, concrete problem your programme faces, not the whole nation.
Ask 'why does this school have teachers who don't show up?' — not 'analyse the political economy of education in country X'. Specific questions get usable answers.
Country-wide PEAProblem-driven PEA
Broad and generalStarts from one concrete problem
Written onceIterative
Read by nobodyUsed by the team
Ends with a descriptionEnds with an entry point
The shift, associated with David Booth and others at ODI, was toward analysis a programme team could act on rather than a study of the country.
The sharper the problem statement, the more usable the analysis. "Weak governance" produces nothing; "teachers absent three days a week here" produces a map.
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Structures, institutions, actors
STRUCTURESdeep, slow:history, geography, economyINSTITUTIONSrules,normsACTORSinterests,incentives, powera problem sitsinside all three
The standard PEA frame: deep structures set the stage, institutions set the rules, and actors pursue interests within them. Diagnose all three.
LayerYou canTimescale
StructuresWork within themDecades
InstitutionsSometimes change themYears
ActorsEngage themNow
The SIA frame is the standard PEA structure and its practical value is the third column: it tells you where effort can produce change within a project horizon.
Most programme effort should sit in the bottom row. Most PEA reports spend most of their pages on the top one.
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Structures: the slow-moving stage
Structures are the deep, slow-changing features that constrain everyone: economic geography, demography, the resource base, history, the global position, social structure (caste, class, ethnicity).
You cannot change structures in a project cycle — but ignoring them guarantees failure. They define the space of the possible.
StructureTimescaleWhat you can do
Economic geographyCenturiesWork within it
DemographyDecadesAnticipate it
Social structureGenerationsAccount for it
Global positionDecadesNote the constraint
Structures are not the actionable layer and they set the boundaries of what the other two layers can produce, which is why they belong in the analysis.
The practical use is negative: a programme design that requires a structural feature to be different has identified its own binding constraint.
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Institutions: formal and informal rules
Within structures sit institutions — the formal rules (laws, mandates, budgets, electoral systems) and the informal ones (norms, patronage, 'how things are really done').
The recurring PEA finding: the informal rules usually dominate. Map the gap between the rules on paper and the rules in practice — that gap is where your problem lives.
Formal ruleInformal rule that overrides it
Transparent tenderWho is expected to win
Merit postingWhose turn it is
Published fee scheduleWhat is actually charged
Equal accessWho may sit where
The recurring PEA finding is that the informal column governs behaviour. Any reform that changes only the left column produces compliance on paper.
Finding the right column requires talking to people who operate the system, off the record. It is the most valuable and least documented part of the work.
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Actors: interests, incentives, power
Finally the actors: who has a stake, what they want, what they stand to gain or lose, and how much power they have to act on it. This is the most operational layer — the one you can actually engage.
  • Interests: what does each actor materially want?
  • Incentives: what is the system rewarding them to do?
  • Power: how able are they to get it — or to block you?
For each actor, establishSources
What they wantInterviews, stated positions
What they gain or loseFollow the money and the postings
How much power they holdCan they disrupt or block?
Who they are aligned withCoalitions, formal and not
The second row is the operative one: stated positions are cheap, and what an actor stands to lose is a much better predictor of behaviour.
Actors are the layer you can actually engage, which is why the analysis should spend most of its effort here and least on the structural layer.
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Thinking and working politically
Thinking and Working Politically (TWP) turns PEA from a one-off report into a way of operating: read the politics continuously, back local reformers, stay flexible, and adapt as the situation shifts.
  • Politics is the main event, not a risk in the margins
  • Back locally legitimate change — don't impose blueprints
  • Adapt iteratively: small bets, fast learning, course-correct
TWP meansRather than
Reading politics continuouslyA one-off analysis
Backing local reformersImporting a model
Staying flexibleA fixed logframe
Adapting as things shiftReporting variance as failure
Thinking and working politically requires funders who can accept adaptive programming, which is the constraint on it rather than the idea being difficult.
The practical minimum: a standing agenda item at every review asking what has changed politically and what that means for the design.
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PEA is a lens, not a crystal ball
  • It can rationalise inaction — 'too political, do nothing'
  • It can be used to justify whatever the funder already wanted
  • Power maps date fast — yesterday's analysis misleads tomorrow
  • Analysts have interests too — PEA needs PEA
Use PEA to find feasible action, not as an excuse for paralysis or as cover for a predetermined plan.
MisuseGuard
"Too political, do nothing"Require an entry point in every PEA
Justifying the pre-existing planDo the analysis before the design
Stale power mapsUpdate at each review
The analyst’s own interestInvolve someone outside the team
The first misuse is the most common and the most damaging: political-economy language used to explain why nothing can be attempted.
A PEA that concludes only that the problem is political has not finished. The output is a feasible next step, however small.
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10
Section Ten
Applying PEA
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Start from a concrete problem
Good applied PEA begins by naming the problem sharply: not 'weak governance' but 'frontline health workers are absent three days a week in this district'. The sharper the problem, the more usable the analysis.
01
NAME the problem precisely
02
MAP the actors around it
03
TRACE their interests & incentives
04
FIND a feasible entry point
Vague problemSharp problem
Weak governanceFrontline workers absent three days a week here
Poor service deliveryPensions do not reach the elderly poor in this district
CorruptionThis procurement is awarded to the same three firms
Low capacityVacancies unfilled for two years in this cadre
The right column is answerable and the left is not. Every sharp problem statement names a place, a group and an observable.
Sharpening the problem is usually the highest-value hour in the whole exercise, and teams routinely skip it because the vague version already exists in the document.
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Map interests against power
Support for reform →Power →BLOCKERSpowerful, opposedCHAMPIONSpowerful, supportiveLATENT FOESALLIES TO BUILD
Plot each actor by power and stance. Your strategy: empower champions, build up allies, neutralise or split blockers, watch latent foes. Position dictates tactic.
QuadrantStrategy
Powerful, supportiveChampion — give them what they need
Powerful, opposedBlocker — neutralise, compensate or avoid
Weak, supportiveAlly — build their capacity and voice
The map is only useful if power is assessed honestly, including the informal holding power a group has through disruption rather than formal authority.
Update it. Power maps date quickly, and a strategy built on last year’s map will target the wrong people.
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Follow the incentives, not the org chart
An official's job description says one thing; the incentives they actually face — transfers, postings, side-income, political loyalty — often say another. PEA asks what behaviour the system is really rewarding.
If absent teachers are never sanctioned and present ones are not rewarded, absence is the rational response. Fix the incentive, not just the rule.
The job description saysThe incentives say
Serve citizensPlease whoever controls your posting
Follow procurement rulesDiscretion is worth something
Attend the facilityNobody checks; the private practice pays
Meet the targetReport meeting it
The fourth row is the general form: where the target is reported rather than verified, the system rewards reporting rather than performing.
Ask what behaviour the system actually rewards and you will predict what happens. Asking what it instructs will not.
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Finding a feasible entry point
  • Where interests align: a reform that also serves a powerful actor
  • A reform champion: an insider with power and will to act
  • A window: a crisis, election or scandal that shifts the balance
  • A small win: a feasible first step that builds a coalition
You rarely move the whole settlement. You look for the seam — the place where a feasible push meets a willing ally and an open window.
Entry pointHow to find it
Aligned interestsWho else gains from this reform?
A championWho has power and wants it?
A windowA crisis, an election, a scandal
A small winWhat is feasible and visible?
Windows close. Where one opens — a scandal, a court order, a new minister — the analysis should already exist so the response is ready.
A small visible win is undervalued: it builds the coalition and demonstrates that the reform can be delivered, which is what makes the next step possible.
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Build the coalition the reform needs
Recall Section 1: reforms have concentrated losers and diffuse winners. The political-economy task is to organise the winners — give the diffuse beneficiaries a champion, a voice, and a stake worth defending.
Transparency tools — social audits, published beneficiary lists, RTI — work partly because they help the diffuse many see and defend their stake.
To organise diffuse winnersYou need
A visible stakeMake the benefit concrete and named
A vehicleAn association, a federation, a union
A championSomeone whose job it is
InformationThey must know they are losing now
The last row is the underrated one. Diffuse losers frequently do not know they are losing, because the cost is small and invisible in each transaction.
Making a hidden cost visible — publishing what a scheme should pay, what a service should cost — is often the first organising step.
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Why 'best practice' travels badly
What worked in Rwanda or Korea rests on that settlement, that capacity, that history. Transplanted whole, 'best practice' becomes isomorphic mimicry — the form copied, the function absent.
Isomorphic mimicry
Pritchett, Woolcock & Andrews: when states adopt the appearance of capable institutions (the law, the agency, the policy) to gain legitimacy, while the underlying function never actually works.
Isomorphic mimicryLooks like
The form is copiedAn agency exists
The function is absentIt does nothing
It satisfies external observersA donor indicator is met
It persistsNobody has an interest in ending it
Pritchett, Woolcock and Andrews named the pattern, and its diagnostic value is that it explains why so many institutional reforms leave a shell behind.
The test is functional: what does this body actually decide, and what happened the last time it decided something inconvenient?
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Problem-driven iterative adaptation
The constructive response is PDIA — Problem-Driven Iterative Adaptation: start from a locally-felt problem, take small steps, learn fast from what works, and let solutions emerge rather than importing them.
  • Solve local problems, not imported templates
  • Create space for iteration — permission to experiment and fail
  • Build capability by doing, not by passing a law that mimics one
PDIA stepContrast with
Start from a locally felt problemAn imported solution
Take small stepsA comprehensive design
Learn fast from eachA single evaluation at the end
Let solutions emergeSpecifying them in advance
Build authority as you goAssuming a mandate
PDIA is a response to isomorphic mimicry from the same authors and is closer to an engineering method than to a policy prescription.
Its main obstacle is funding: iteration and emergence are hard to write into a three-year logframe with fixed indicators.
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A worked example: cleaning up a transfer scheme
PEA questionFinding (illustrative)Implication
What's the problem?Pensions don't reach the elderly poorDefine narrowly, by district
Who are the actors?Officials, middlemen, local leaders, eldersMap power vs stance
What are the incentives?Middlemen profit from the leakageThey will block reform
Where's the entry point?Digital payments + public listsCut the middleman, arm the poor
Who's the champion?A reformist district officerBack them; protect them
Notice the whole course at work: rents, capture, collective action, incentives, settlement — converging on one feasible move.
PEA questionIllustrative findingWhat it implies
What is the problem?Pensions do not reach the elderly poorDefine it by district
Who are the actors?Officials, middlemen, local leadersMap their power
What are the incentives?Middlemen take a cutRemove the intermediary
Where is the entry point?Direct transfer plus a public listA feasible first step
The value of the worked example is the last column. A finding that does not change what the programme does has not earned its place in the report.
Note that the entry point is modest and specific. That is the usual shape of a usable PEA conclusion.
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11
Section Eleven
India / South Asia & Further Reading
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What kind of state is India's?
India is a paradox: a durable democracy with a vast, ambitious state that often delivers poorly. Its political economy is shaped by democratic competition, deep social cleavages, and a powerful but unevenly capable bureaucracy.
Understanding it means holding several things at once: electoral democracy, caste, class, federalism and a still-large informal economy.
India combinesProducing
Durable democracyResponsive welfare politics
A vast, ambitious stateWide reach, uneven delivery
Deep social cleavagesIdentity as a political resource
Federal bargainingPolicy variation across states
The paradox is the starting point of most serious writing on the Indian state: high ambition and high reach alongside poor implementation in many domains.
State-level variation is the analytical opportunity. The same national policy delivered very differently across states is a natural comparison worth using.
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Bardhan: the dominant proprietary classes
Pranab Bardhan, in The Political Economy of Development in India (1984), argued that India's slow growth reflected a stand-off between three dominant proprietary classes — industrial capitalists, rich farmers, and the professional/bureaucratic elite.
None could dominate; each could veto. The result was a state that spread subsidies across all three rather than investing decisively — a settlement of mutual blocking.
Bardhan’s three classesTheir claim on the state
Industrial capitalistsProtection, licences, credit
Rich farmersInput subsidies, price support, no land tax
Professionals in the stateEmployment, discretion, status
His argument (1984) was that no group could dominate, so the state distributed subsidies to all three, leaving little for public investment.
It is a political-settlement argument written before the term existed, and it remains one of the sharpest accounts of Indian fiscal politics.
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Kohli: states and industrialisation
Atul Kohli compared how different states drive (or fail to drive) industrial transformation. In the Indian case he traced the shift toward a closer state–business alliance and a more pro-business (not always pro-market) tilt from the 1980s.
Kohli's distinction matters: pro-business (favouring existing firms and their profits) is not the same as pro-market (favouring competition and entry). India often chose the former.
Kohli’s distinctionMeaning
Pro-businessSupports existing firms and their profits
Pro-marketSupports competition and entry
The distinction is not semantic. A pro-business state protects incumbents; a pro-market one lets entrants displace them, and the two produce very different growth patterns.
Kohli’s reading of India’s shift is that it moved toward the first rather than the second, which is consistent with the persistence of concentrated sectors.
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Federalism: the bargaining state
India's federalism is a continuous bargain between the Centre and the states over taxes, transfers and authority — mediated by the Finance Commission, the GST Council and party competition. Much of India's political economy is this Centre–state negotiation.
For practitioners: which tier holds the money, the mandate and the staff for your issue is a first-order question. The bargain shapes what is implementable.
Federal bargain overMediated by
Tax sharesThe Finance Commission
Indirect taxationThe GST Council
Centrally sponsored schemesMinistry conditions
Political alignmentParty competition
Much of what a practitioner meets as an implementation problem is a federal-bargaining outcome: who pays, who designs, and who is blamed.
The GST Council is the most consequential recent institution here, because it moved a large area of state fiscal autonomy into a shared body.
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Caste, class and capital
Caste is not a residue of the past but an active force in India's political economy — structuring access to land, credit, networks, education and the state itself. Class and caste overlap and cross-cut in ways no purely economic analysis captures.
Any PEA in India that treats actors as caste-blind will misread both interests and power. Who benefits is rarely separable from who belongs.
Caste structures access toWhich means
LandAsset inequality is caste-patterned
Credit and networksBusiness ownership is too
EducationCumulative advantage
The state itselfWho staffs and who is served
Treating caste as a cultural residue misses that it operates as an economic institution: it allocates assets, credit, information and access.
A class analysis without caste, or a caste analysis without class, will misdescribe most Indian outcomes. They cross-cut rather than substitute.
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The new welfare politics
Recent decades brought a wave of rights and transfers — MGNREGA, the food security and forest rights acts, DBT, free rations and cash schemes. This welfare expansion is itself a political-economy phenomenon: competitive democracy delivering to the poor as voters.
Read these as the double movement and clientelism at once — protection against markets and a currency of electoral exchange. Both readings are true.
Welfare expansion isWhich explains
A political-economy phenomenonWhy it grows under competition
Competitive, across partiesWhy it survives changes of government
Targeted and visibleWhy transfers beat services
Cheaper than state capacityWhy delivery does not improve
The last row is the uncomfortable one: a transfer is politically efficient because it is attributable, while a functioning school is diffuse and slow.
That is a structural bias toward transfers over service delivery, and it is not solved by pointing out that services matter more.
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The wider region
  • Pakistan & Bangladesh: Mushtaq Khan's settlements work draws heavily on them
  • Bangladesh: NGO-led delivery (BRAC, Grameen) reshaping the state's role
  • Sri Lanka & Nepal: how ethnic & regional cleavages shape settlements
  • Common threads: informality, patronage, contested federalism, agrarian power
The frameworks travel; the settlements differ. Always ground the theory in the specific country's distribution of power.
CountryWhat it illustrates
PakistanKhan’s settlements framework, developed there
BangladeshNGO-led delivery reshaping the state’s role
Sri LankaEthnic cleavage shaping the settlement
NepalFederal restructuring after 2015
The regional comparison is underused. These are four different settlements in similar structural conditions, which is close to a natural experiment.
Bangladesh in particular raises a question the framework handles well: what happens to state capacity when NGOs deliver much of what a state would.
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A short reading list
  • Why Nations Fail — Acemoglu & Robinson (institutions)
  • The Great Transformation — Karl Polanyi (markets & society)
  • Governing the Commons — Elinor Ostrom (collective action)
  • The Political Economy of Development in India — Pranab Bardhan
  • Political Settlements & PEA toolkits — Mushtaq Khan; ODI / DLP
Pair this deck with ImpactMojo's Development Economics, Indian Constitution and Decolonising Development 101 courses.
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If you remember five things
  • Politics and economics are one system — who gets what, how
  • Institutions are the rules of the game — and they shape incentives
  • Concentrated interests beat diffuse ones — organise the winners
  • Reforms stick only if compatible with power — read the settlement
  • Design for the world as it is — find feasible entry points
TakeawayThe question to ask
Politics and economics are one systemWho gets what, and who wrote the rule?
Institutions shape incentivesWhat does the system reward?
Concentrated beats diffuseWho is organised here?
Reforms need a compatible settlementWho could block this, and why?
Find the feasible entry pointWhat is the smallest real win?
Five questions, askable of any policy problem without preparation. They will not tell you what to do and they will tell you what will happen if you do it.
If you carry one, carry the third. It explains more stalled reforms than any other single idea in this course.
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Political Economy 101 · Complete
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