| Economics alone asks | Political economy adds |
|---|---|
| Is this efficient? | Who wrote the rule? |
| What is the optimal tariff? | Who benefits from the current one? |
| Why is this market failing? | Who profits from the failure? |
| What should be done? | Who could stop it? |
| Every one of these answers Lasswell | By deciding |
|---|---|
| A budget line | Who gets money |
| A subsidy | Which activity is cheap |
| A tariff | Which producers are protected |
| A posting | Who holds discretion |
| A licence | Who may enter |
| Reform stalls because | Not because |
|---|---|
| Someone loses concentrated income | Nobody understood the economics |
| The losers are organised | The evidence was weak |
| The winners are dispersed | The design was poor |
| The settlement cannot absorb it | Political will was lacking |
| Losers | Winners | |
|---|---|---|
| Number | Few | Many |
| Stake each | Large | Small |
| Organised? | Already | Rarely |
| Know who they are? | Yes | Often not |
| Will act? | Certainly | Seldom |
| Positive question | Normative question |
|---|---|
| Why does this subsidy persist? | Should it exist? |
| Who captured this regulator? | Is capture unjust? |
| How did this cartel form? | What would be fair? |
| Level | Typical question | Typical actor |
|---|---|---|
| Micro | Who controls the village commons? | Households, a user group |
| Meso | Who captured this regulator? | Firms, a ministry |
| Macro | Why this fiscal stance? | The ruling coalition |
| Global | Who sets the trade rule? | States, IFIs |
| Use it to | Instead of |
|---|---|
| Diagnose why a reform stalls | Repeating the advocacy |
| Map who can block | Assuming goodwill |
| Find a feasible entry point | Designing the ideal |
| Anticipate what will undo the design | Discovering it later |
| Classical writers assumed | Modern economics separated |
|---|---|
| The state and the market are one subject | Politics into political science |
| Distribution is central | Efficiency as the main question |
| Class is an analytic category | The representative agent |
| History matters | Timeless models |
| Smith argued | Under conditions of |
|---|---|
| Self-interest can serve society | Genuine competition |
| The division of labour raises output | Extent of the market |
| Prices coordinate without a planner | Free entry |
| Not always — see monopoly | Which he warned about |
| Smith actually | The caricature |
|---|---|
| Distrusted merchants’ conspiracies | Celebrated business |
| Warned against monopoly | Opposed all regulation |
| Supported public education | Opposed public spending |
| Grounded markets in sympathy | Reduced people to self-interest |
| Comparative advantage says | It does not say |
|---|---|
| Both countries can gain from trade | Everyone within them gains |
| Specialise where relatively best | Which sectors will grow |
| Absolute disadvantage is not fatal | Adjustment is costless |
| Aggregate output rises | Distribution takes care of itself |
| Marx’s claim | What follows analytically |
|---|---|
| Profit comes from surplus value | Class conflict is structural |
| Capital concentrates | Monopoly is a tendency, not an accident |
| Ideas follow material interests | Examine who benefits from a belief |
| Crisis is recurrent | Instability is internal, not external |
| Marxian tool | Used today in |
|---|---|
| Material interests shape ideas | Analysis of policy consensus |
| Class structures conflict | Labour and land studies |
| Accumulation drives concentration | Competition policy debates |
| Ideology as interest | Discourse analysis |
| Smith | Ricardo | Marx | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Core idea | Markets coordinate | Gains from trade | Class & exploitation |
| The market | Mostly benign | Mutually beneficial | Site of conflict |
| Key concept | Invisible hand | Comparative advantage | Surplus value |
| Distribution | Secondary | Central (rent) | The whole question |
| The state | Rules & public goods | Free trade | Instrument of class |
| Smith | Ricardo | Marx | |
|---|---|---|---|
| The market is | A coordinator | Mutually beneficial | A site of conflict |
| Key concept | Invisible hand | Comparative advantage | Surplus value |
| Distribution | A by-product | Set by scarcity | The central question |
| The lazy question | The real question |
|---|---|
| Market or state? | Which does what, here? |
| More or less regulation? | Which rule, enforced by whom? |
| Public or private delivery? | Which failure is worse in this case? |
| Failure | What happens | Example |
|---|---|---|
| Public goods | Under-supplied — can't exclude free-riders | Clean air, rural roads, defence |
| Externalities | Costs/benefits spill onto others | Pollution, vaccination |
| Information gaps | One side knows more | Insurance, used goods, credit |
| Monopoly power | Few sellers set prices | Utilities, platforms |
| Missing markets | No market exists at all | Insurance for the very poor |
| Failure | South Asian example |
|---|---|
| Public goods | Rural roads; flood defence |
| Externalities | Groundwater depletion; stubble burning |
| Information asymmetry | Credit markets; health care |
| Market power | Mandi intermediaries; input dealers |
| Missing markets | Crop insurance for smallholders |
| State role | Fails when |
|---|---|
| Set the rules | Courts are slow or captured |
| Provide public goods | Capacity is absent |
| Correct externalities | The polluter is politically strong |
| Redistribute | The tax base is narrow |
| Stabilise | Fiscal space is exhausted |
| State failure source | Shows as |
|---|---|
| Capture by organised interests | Rules that serve incumbents |
| Information the centre lacks | Targeting errors |
| Weak implementation capacity | Policy on paper only |
| Officials’ own incentives | Behaviour the org chart does not predict |
| Polanyi’s fictitious commodities | Because |
|---|---|
| Land | It is nature, not produced for sale |
| Labour | It is people, not produced for sale |
| Money | It is a token of purchasing power |
| Embeddedness means | So a policy that |
|---|---|
| Markets rest on social relations | Ignores norms will misfire |
| Norms and trust make exchange possible | Assumes anonymity is wrong here |
| Institutions precede the market | Deregulates may destroy the substrate |
| Movement | Direction |
|---|---|
| Marketisation | Commodify land, labour, money |
| Counter-movement | Demands to re-embed and protect |
| Result | Neither pure market nor pure protection |
| Expansion | Counter-movement |
|---|---|
| 1991 liberalisation | Rights-based guarantees |
| Market access to land | Forest Rights Act |
| Deregulated labour | Employment guarantee |
| 2020 farm laws | Protest and repeal |
| Explanation | Problem with it |
|---|---|
| Geography | Cannot explain divergence between neighbours |
| Culture | Cultures change; rankings do not follow |
| Resources | Resource-rich countries often do worse |
| Institutions | The dominant answer — with its own problems |
| Institution type | Example | Changes |
|---|---|---|
| Formal | Laws, constitutions, contracts | By decision, quickly |
| Informal | Norms, conventions, patronage | Slowly, if at all |
| Institutions | Organisations | |
|---|---|---|
| Are | The rules | The players |
| Examples | Property law, electoral rules | Firms, parties, NGOs |
| Change | Slowly | Constantly |
| Interest | None of their own | Shape rules to suit them |
| Inclusive institutions | Extractive institutions |
|---|---|
| Reward innovation | Fear it |
| Allow entry | Protect incumbents |
| Broad property rights | Elite property rights |
| Constrain the executive | Concentrate power |
| Inclusive | Extractive | |
|---|---|---|
| Who participates | Broad mass of people | A narrow elite |
| Property rights | Secure for many | Secure only for the elite |
| Entry & competition | Open | Blocked to protect incumbents |
| Incentive to invest | Strong, widespread | Weak for outsiders |
| Political power | Pluralist, constrained | Concentrated, absolutist |
| Long-run result | Innovation & growth | Stagnation & capture |
| Inclusive | Extractive | |
|---|---|---|
| Who participates | Broadly | A narrow elite |
| Property rights | Secure for many | Secure for the elite |
| Entry | Open | Blocked |
| Investment incentive | Strong | Weak for outsiders |
| Innovation | Rewarded | Threatening |
| The correlation is strong | The causal question is not settled |
|---|---|
| Better institutions, higher income | Which causes which? |
| Persistent over time | Or a third factor drives both |
| Robust to controls | Measurement is partly circular |
| Critique | Substance |
|---|---|
| Tautology risk | Good institutions defined by good outcomes |
| No theory of change | Explains traps better than exits |
| China and East Asia | Grew fast without inclusive politics |
| Aggregation | A country score hides variation within it |
| Group | Per-member stake | Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| Twenty producers | Large | Organised; wins |
| A hundred million consumers | Tiny | Unorganised; loses |
| Olson’s logic | Consequence |
|---|---|
| The benefit is non-excludable | You gain whether or not you contribute |
| Contribution is costly | Rational to free-ride |
| Everyone reasons the same way | The good is under-provided |
| Unless something changes the incentive | Selective incentives, coercion, small size |
| Small group | Large group |
|---|---|
| Each share is large | Each share is tiny |
| Free-riders are visible | Defection goes unnoticed |
| Coordination is cheap | Coordination is costly |
| Acts | Does not |
| Solution | Real example |
|---|---|
| Selective incentives | A union’s benefits; an SHG’s credit |
| Coercion | Compulsory dues; mandatory membership |
| Federation | SHG to village organisation to block federation |
| Leadership and entrepreneurs | Someone bears the start-up cost |
| Small size | Ten to twenty members |
| Hardin’s model assumes | Which is often false |
|---|---|
| Open access to anyone | Most commons have boundaries |
| No communication among users | Users talk constantly |
| No rules or sanctions | Local rules usually exist |
| Purely individual calculation | Reputation matters |
| Ostrom showed | Against the assumption that |
|---|---|
| Communities do govern commons | Only privatisation or the state works |
| They design their own rules | Rules must come from outside |
| Some systems last centuries | Degradation is inevitable |
| Success has identifiable features | It is idiosyncratic |
| Principle | The question to ask |
|---|---|
| Clear boundaries | Who may use it, and who decides? |
| Rules fit conditions | Were they made here? |
| Users make the rules | Can they change them? |
| Accountable monitoring | Who watches, answerable to whom? |
| Graduated sanctions | Is a first offence treated as a fifth? |
| Cheap conflict resolution | Is there a fast local forum? |
| South Asian commons institution | Ostrom principle most at risk |
|---|---|
| Joint Forest Management | Users making the rules |
| Water user associations | Boundaries; tail-end access |
| Fishery cooperatives | Monitoring and sanctions |
| Self-help groups | Working — the model fits well |
| Rent from | Productive? |
|---|---|
| A monopoly licence | No |
| A patent on a real invention | Arguably — it rewards innovation |
| Location of land | No, but taxable |
| Scarce skill | Partly |
| A political connection | No |
| Rent-seeking effort goes into | Instead of |
|---|---|
| Lobbying for a licence | Improving the product |
| Cultivating an official | Cutting costs |
| Litigating to block entry | Competing on price |
| Capturing a subsidy | Raising productivity |
| Licence Raj created | Effect |
|---|---|
| Permits for capacity and imports | A licence was worth a fortune |
| Discretion in granting them | Competition to influence, not to produce |
| Protection from entry | Incumbents secure, quality low |
| Long approval chains | Delay as a bargaining asset |
| Type | What it is | Example |
|---|---|---|
| Petty | Small bribes for routine service | Speed money for a certificate |
| Grand | Large-scale theft at the top | Rigged mega-contracts |
| Bureaucratic | Officials extract from citizens | Inspector demands a cut |
| Political | Funds & favours for power | Donations for policy |
| State capture | Rules themselves bought | Laws written for one firm |
| Type | Where it bites | What reduces it |
|---|---|---|
| Petty | Frontline service delivery | Removing discretion; digitisation |
| Grand | Large contracts | Transparency; competitive process |
| Bureaucratic | Inspection and licensing | Fewer approvals; clear rules |
| Political | Rule-making itself | Party finance reform |
| Ordinary corruption | State capture |
|---|---|
| Breaking the rule | Writing the rule |
| Detectable as a violation | Perfectly legal |
| Addressed by enforcement | Enforcement is irrelevant |
| A bribe | A tailored regulation |
| Capture route | Counter |
|---|---|
| The list is made locally | Read it aloud publicly |
| Selection is discretionary | Objective, published criteria |
| Information is held by one person | Publish entitlements |
| Grievances go to the captor | An independent route |
| Patronage | Clientelism | |
|---|---|---|
| Exchange | Favour for loyalty | Goods for votes, ongoing |
| Time horizon | Episodic | Standing relationship |
| Targets | Individuals and networks | Groups and localities |
| Undermines | Merit and rules | Programmatic politics |
| Instrument | Removes |
|---|---|
| Abolish needless permits | The scarcity itself |
| Auctions and lotteries | Discretion |
| Automatic entitlement | The gatekeeper |
| Transparency and social audit | Concealment |
| Competition | The monopoly rent |
| Late developer question | What varies |
|---|---|
| Did the state steer? | Capacity and autonomy |
| Was support conditional? | Reciprocity, or a gift |
| Was there a bureaucracy? | Merit recruitment |
| Were rents disciplined? | Performance conditions |
| Developmental state feature | Requires |
|---|---|
| Steering sectors | Information about them |
| Disciplining firms | Autonomy from them |
| A capable bureaucracy | Merit recruitment and career stability |
| Long horizons | Political stability |
| Reciprocal control means | Contrast with |
|---|---|
| Support tied to export targets | Unconditional protection |
| Underperformers lose support | Permanent infant industry |
| Measurable performance criteria | Discretionary favour |
| A contract, in effect | A gift |
| Too autonomous | Too embedded | Embedded autonomy |
|---|---|---|
| No information about industry | Captured by it | Informed and independent |
| Policy misses the mark | Policy serves incumbents | Policy disciplines |
| Resource-curse mechanism | How it operates |
|---|---|
| Rents detach rulers from taxpayers | No need to bargain for revenue |
| Currency appreciation | Other exports become uncompetitive |
| Volatility | Fiscal planning collapses |
| Conflict over the rent | Something worth capturing |
| Resource rents rise | And typically |
|---|---|
| Non-resource exports fall | Currency appreciation |
| Tax effort falls | Revenue arrives without bargaining |
| Earlier industrialisers | Today’s developing countries |
|---|---|
| Manufacturing peaked at high income | Peaks at much lower income |
| A long factory phase | A short one, or none |
| Mass absorption of low-skill labour | Fewer such jobs available |
| Productivity growth through industry | Services with weaker spillovers |
| South Asian feature | Political-economy consequence |
|---|---|
| Services-led growth | Skill-biased; limited absorption |
| A vast informal sector | Entitlements cannot run through employers |
| Democratic competition | Welfare expands; reform is harder |
| Embedded without autonomy | Business access without discipline |
| Transplanted institution | Why it withers |
|---|---|
| Independent regulator | No power base to defend its independence |
| Merit bureaucracy | Postings remain a political resource |
| Anti-corruption agency | It threatens the coalition that funds politics |
| Procurement rules | The discretion is the point |
| A political settlement is | It determines |
|---|---|
| The balance of power between groups | Which institutions are enforceable |
| Not a formal agreement | What reform can stick |
| Historically produced | What is feasible now |
| Slowly changing | The horizon of reform |
| Holding power comes from | Which need not match |
|---|---|
| Organisation | Formal authority |
| Wealth | Legal standing |
| Numbers | Official position |
| Capacity for disruption | Any of the above |
| Read the diagram | And note |
|---|---|
| Power shapes institutions | Not the reverse, initially |
| Institutions shape outcomes | Where they are enforceable |
| Outcomes reshape power | The settlement evolves |
| The loop is slow | Reform horizons are long |
| Informal rule | Overrides |
|---|---|
| Bribe norms | The fee schedule |
| Caste hierarchy | Equal access provisions |
| Understandings about postings | Merit rules |
| Whose turn it is | The selection criteria |
| The reform aims to… | But the settlement… | So… |
|---|---|---|
| Remove a subsidy | Empowers those who capture it | It is restored after protests |
| Build merit hiring | Rests on patronage networks | Postings stay political |
| Empower a regulator | Favours the firms regulated | The regulator is captured |
| Target the poor | Runs through local elites | Benefits leak upward |
| Reform aims to | The settlement | So |
|---|---|---|
| Remove a subsidy | Empowers those who capture it | It returns after protest |
| Build merit hiring | Rests on patronage | Postings stay political |
| Empower a regulator | Depends on the regulated | It is starved or staffed loyally |
| Digitise to remove discretion | Discretion is the resource | A parallel process appears |
| Work with the settlement by | Rather than |
|---|---|
| Finding reforms compatible with it | Ideal reforms it will reject |
| Shifting the balance gradually | Confronting it head-on |
| Building the constituency first | Legislating and hoping |
| Taking a small feasible win | A comprehensive package |
| Broad settlement | Narrow or contested | |
|---|---|---|
| Power | Widely shared | Concentrated or fought over |
| Horizons | Longer | Short |
| Commitments | More credible | Hard to make credible |
| Rent discipline | Possible | Difficult |
| PEA produces | It does not produce |
|---|---|
| A map of interests and power | A prediction |
| Feasible entry points | A guarantee |
| An account of why a reform stalls | Permission to stop trying |
| A design fitted to the real world | A neutral analysis |
| Country-wide PEA | Problem-driven PEA |
|---|---|
| Broad and general | Starts from one concrete problem |
| Written once | Iterative |
| Read by nobody | Used by the team |
| Ends with a description | Ends with an entry point |
| Layer | You can | Timescale |
|---|---|---|
| Structures | Work within them | Decades |
| Institutions | Sometimes change them | Years |
| Actors | Engage them | Now |
| Structure | Timescale | What you can do |
|---|---|---|
| Economic geography | Centuries | Work within it |
| Demography | Decades | Anticipate it |
| Social structure | Generations | Account for it |
| Global position | Decades | Note the constraint |
| Formal rule | Informal rule that overrides it |
|---|---|
| Transparent tender | Who is expected to win |
| Merit posting | Whose turn it is |
| Published fee schedule | What is actually charged |
| Equal access | Who may sit where |
| For each actor, establish | Sources |
|---|---|
| What they want | Interviews, stated positions |
| What they gain or lose | Follow the money and the postings |
| How much power they hold | Can they disrupt or block? |
| Who they are aligned with | Coalitions, formal and not |
| TWP means | Rather than |
|---|---|
| Reading politics continuously | A one-off analysis |
| Backing local reformers | Importing a model |
| Staying flexible | A fixed logframe |
| Adapting as things shift | Reporting variance as failure |
| Misuse | Guard |
|---|---|
| "Too political, do nothing" | Require an entry point in every PEA |
| Justifying the pre-existing plan | Do the analysis before the design |
| Stale power maps | Update at each review |
| The analyst’s own interest | Involve someone outside the team |
| Vague problem | Sharp problem |
|---|---|
| Weak governance | Frontline workers absent three days a week here |
| Poor service delivery | Pensions do not reach the elderly poor in this district |
| Corruption | This procurement is awarded to the same three firms |
| Low capacity | Vacancies unfilled for two years in this cadre |
| Quadrant | Strategy |
|---|---|
| Powerful, supportive | Champion — give them what they need |
| Powerful, opposed | Blocker — neutralise, compensate or avoid |
| Weak, supportive | Ally — build their capacity and voice |
| The job description says | The incentives say |
|---|---|
| Serve citizens | Please whoever controls your posting |
| Follow procurement rules | Discretion is worth something |
| Attend the facility | Nobody checks; the private practice pays |
| Meet the target | Report meeting it |
| Entry point | How to find it |
|---|---|
| Aligned interests | Who else gains from this reform? |
| A champion | Who has power and wants it? |
| A window | A crisis, an election, a scandal |
| A small win | What is feasible and visible? |
| To organise diffuse winners | You need |
|---|---|
| A visible stake | Make the benefit concrete and named |
| A vehicle | An association, a federation, a union |
| A champion | Someone whose job it is |
| Information | They must know they are losing now |
| Isomorphic mimicry | Looks like |
|---|---|
| The form is copied | An agency exists |
| The function is absent | It does nothing |
| It satisfies external observers | A donor indicator is met |
| It persists | Nobody has an interest in ending it |
| PDIA step | Contrast with |
|---|---|
| Start from a locally felt problem | An imported solution |
| Take small steps | A comprehensive design |
| Learn fast from each | A single evaluation at the end |
| Let solutions emerge | Specifying them in advance |
| Build authority as you go | Assuming a mandate |
| PEA question | Finding (illustrative) | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| What's the problem? | Pensions don't reach the elderly poor | Define narrowly, by district |
| Who are the actors? | Officials, middlemen, local leaders, elders | Map power vs stance |
| What are the incentives? | Middlemen profit from the leakage | They will block reform |
| Where's the entry point? | Digital payments + public lists | Cut the middleman, arm the poor |
| Who's the champion? | A reformist district officer | Back them; protect them |
| PEA question | Illustrative finding | What it implies |
|---|---|---|
| What is the problem? | Pensions do not reach the elderly poor | Define it by district |
| Who are the actors? | Officials, middlemen, local leaders | Map their power |
| What are the incentives? | Middlemen take a cut | Remove the intermediary |
| Where is the entry point? | Direct transfer plus a public list | A feasible first step |
| India combines | Producing |
|---|---|
| Durable democracy | Responsive welfare politics |
| A vast, ambitious state | Wide reach, uneven delivery |
| Deep social cleavages | Identity as a political resource |
| Federal bargaining | Policy variation across states |
| Bardhan’s three classes | Their claim on the state |
|---|---|
| Industrial capitalists | Protection, licences, credit |
| Rich farmers | Input subsidies, price support, no land tax |
| Professionals in the state | Employment, discretion, status |
| Kohli’s distinction | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Pro-business | Supports existing firms and their profits |
| Pro-market | Supports competition and entry |
| Federal bargain over | Mediated by |
|---|---|
| Tax shares | The Finance Commission |
| Indirect taxation | The GST Council |
| Centrally sponsored schemes | Ministry conditions |
| Political alignment | Party competition |
| Caste structures access to | Which means |
|---|---|
| Land | Asset inequality is caste-patterned |
| Credit and networks | Business ownership is too |
| Education | Cumulative advantage |
| The state itself | Who staffs and who is served |
| Welfare expansion is | Which explains |
|---|---|
| A political-economy phenomenon | Why it grows under competition |
| Competitive, across parties | Why it survives changes of government |
| Targeted and visible | Why transfers beat services |
| Cheaper than state capacity | Why delivery does not improve |
| Country | What it illustrates |
|---|---|
| Pakistan | Khan’s settlements framework, developed there |
| Bangladesh | NGO-led delivery reshaping the state’s role |
| Sri Lanka | Ethnic cleavage shaping the settlement |
| Nepal | Federal restructuring after 2015 |
| Takeaway | The question to ask |
|---|---|
| Politics and economics are one system | Who gets what, and who wrote the rule? |
| Institutions shape incentives | What does the system reward? |
| Concentrated beats diffuse | Who is organised here? |
| Reforms need a compatible settlement | Who could block this, and why? |
| Find the feasible entry point | What is the smallest real win? |