| Results level | Indicator | Means of verification | Assumptions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Impact / Goal | How measured | Where the data comes from | What must hold |
| Outcome / Purpose | How measured | Source | Assumption |
| Outputs | How measured | Source | Assumption |
| Activities (& inputs) | How measured | Source | Assumption |
| Tool | What it is | Strength |
|---|---|---|
| Theory of change | A narrative + diagram of how and why change happens | Rich, shows pathways & mechanisms |
| Results framework | A hierarchy of objectives and sub-objectives | Good for portfolios / strategy |
| Logframe | A matrix of results, indicators, sources, assumptions | Compact, measurable, donor-ready |
| Level | Example (girls’ education programme) |
|---|---|
| Impact | Women’s economic and social participation rises in the district |
| Outcome | More girls complete secondary school |
| Output | 2,000 girls receive scholarships and after-school tutoring |
| Activity | Recruit tutors; disburse scholarships; run classes |
| Input | Funds, teachers, classrooms, materials |
| Level | Phrasing | Example |
|---|---|---|
| Activity | Verb (the doing) | Train health workers |
| Output | Delivered / completed | 500 health workers trained |
| Outcome | Change of state in others | Health workers apply IMNCI protocols |
| Impact | Higher-order condition | Under-5 mortality falls |
| Level | Statement |
|---|---|
| Output 1 | 800 adolescent girls enrolled in after-school STEM clubs |
| Activities | Set up 40 clubs; recruit & train 40 facilitators; supply kits |
| Inputs | 40 facilitators, club kits, venue agreements, ₹X budget |
| Level | Statement |
|---|---|
| Impact | Contributes to higher and more resilient incomes for smallholder households |
| Outcome | Farmers in 40 villages adopt and sustain water-efficient irrigation |
| Output | 1,500 farmers trained and equipped with drip-irrigation kits |
| Result | Indicator (with baseline → target) |
|---|---|
| Output | No. of farmers trained: 0 → 1,500 by Q6 (disagg. by sex) |
| Outcome | % of trained farmers still using drip at 12 months: – → 60% |
| Impact | Mean kharif income of participant households: baseline survey → +20% |
| Indicator | Means of verification |
|---|---|
| 1,500 farmers trained | Training registers, ongoing, M&E officer |
| 60% still using drip at 12 months | Follow-up sample survey of 300 farmers, year 2, external enumerators |
| +20% kharif income | Baseline & endline household survey; cross-checked with mandi records |
| Likely to hold? | Action |
|---|---|
| Almost certain | Note it, move on — not a real risk |
| Likely but not sure | Keep in the logframe; monitor it |
| Unlikely & important | Redesign the project to remove the dependency, or add an activity to secure it |
| Will not hold & fatal | A “killer assumption” — the project may not be viable |
| Risk | L×I | Response | Owner |
|---|---|---|---|
| Drought cuts yields, weakening the income case | 3×4 | Treat: promote water-efficient varieties; tolerate residual | Field lead |
| Trained staff transferred out | 4×3 | Treat: train a wider pool; brief supervisors | M&E officer |
| Partner financial controls weak | 2×5 | Transfer/treat: audits, milestone disbursement | Finance |
| Result | Indicator | MoV | Assumption |
|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome: farmers adopt & sustain drip irrigation | 60% of trained farmers still using drip at 12 months | Follow-up survey of 300, year 2 | Water availability and crop prices stay viable |
| Approach | Good when… |
|---|---|
| Outcome Mapping | Change runs through many actors’ behaviour; boundaries are fuzzy |
| Outcome Harvesting | Outcomes can’t be predicted in advance; you work backwards |
| Most Significant Change | You want participant-defined, story-based evidence |
| Adaptive / DDD | The problem is complex and the path must be discovered |
| Column | Must contain |
|---|---|
| Results | One result per row, in the right grammar for its level |
| Indicators | Unit, baseline, target, date, disaggregation |
| MoV | Source, method, frequency, responsible person |
| Assumptions | External conditions, monitored, not things you control |