| The matrix answers | Column |
|---|---|
| What are we trying to achieve? | Results (left) |
| How will we know? | Indicators |
| Where does the proof come from? | Means of verification |
| What must hold for this to work? | Assumptions |
| Results level | Indicator | Means of verification | Assumptions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Impact / Goal | How measured | Where the data comes from | What must hold |
| Outcome / Purpose | How measured | Source | Assumption |
| Outputs | How measured | Source | Assumption |
| Activities (& inputs) | How measured | Source | Assumption |
| Read it | And you are testing |
|---|---|
| Down the left column | Whether the logic holds |
| Across each row | Whether the result is measurable and verifiable |
| Left column plus assumptions | Whether the bet is honest about risk |
| Bottom row against the budget | Whether it is affordable |
| Lineage | Contribution |
|---|---|
| USAID, 1969 | The original matrix and its discipline |
| GTZ ZOPP, 1980s | Built participatively, in a workshop |
| EU / EuropeAid | Project Cycle Management guidelines |
| DFID / FCDO | Annual milestones; a separate theory of change |
| Benefit | Only if |
|---|---|
| A testable theory | The logic is genuinely challenged, not just written |
| Shared language | Everyone agrees which row is which |
| A monitoring spine | The MoV column is realistic |
| A basis for accountability | It is revised when learning says so |
| The logframe is not | Which lives in |
|---|---|
| The theory of change | A narrative and diagram |
| The work plan | A schedule with dependencies |
| The budget | A costed activity plan |
| The risk register | A scored, owned list |
| The M&E plan | Tools, sampling, analysis, use |
| Tool | What it is | Strength |
|---|---|---|
| Theory of change | A narrative + diagram of how and why change happens | Rich, shows pathways & mechanisms |
| Results framework | A hierarchy of objectives and sub-objectives | Good for portfolios / strategy |
| Logframe | A matrix of results, indicators, sources, assumptions | Compact, measurable, donor-ready |
| Tool | Answers | Weakness |
|---|---|---|
| Theory of change | How and why change happens | Hard to summarise or report against |
| Results framework | What sits under what | No assumptions, no verification |
| Logframe | All four questions, on a page | Compresses; implies linearity |
| Link | One-word test |
|---|---|
| Input | Spent |
| Activity | Done |
| Output | Delivered |
| Outcome | Changed |
| Impact | Contributed to |
| Sphere | Levels | You are |
|---|---|---|
| Control | Inputs, activities, outputs | Accountable |
| Influence | Outcome | Responsible for trying |
| Interest | Impact | One contributor among many |
| Step | The hypothesis | Fails when |
|---|---|---|
| Inputs to activities | Resources arrive and are usable | Funds released late |
| Activities to outputs | Doing the work produces the goods | Low attendance, poor quality |
| Outputs to outcome | People take up what was delivered | The gap that sinks most projects |
| Outcome to impact | Behaviour change aggregates | Other forces dominate |
| Phase | Direction | Question you ask |
|---|---|---|
| Design | Top down | What would produce the level below? |
| Delivery | Bottom up | Are we producing the level above? |
| Review | Both | Did the logic hold where we assumed it would? |
| Level | Example (girls’ education programme) |
|---|---|
| Impact | Women’s economic and social participation rises in the district |
| Outcome | More girls complete secondary school |
| Output | 2,000 girls receive scholarships and after-school tutoring |
| Activity | Recruit tutors; disburse scholarships; run classes |
| Input | Funds, teachers, classrooms, materials |
| Level | Who has to act | Timeframe |
|---|---|---|
| Output | The project | During delivery |
| Outcome | Girls and their families | Late project, and after |
| Impact | Labour markets, institutions, norms | Years |
| Statement | Level | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 500 health workers trained | Output | Done when the project has done it |
| Health workers correctly manage cases | Outcome | Requires them to change practice |
| Child mortality falls | Impact | Many causes; long horizon |
| Training curriculum developed | Output | A deliverable, not a change |
| Level | Claim you can make | Method that supports it |
|---|---|---|
| Output | We did this | Project records |
| Outcome | This changed, and we plausibly contributed | Comparison, or contribution analysis |
| Impact | This changed; we were one of several forces | Rarely attributable to one project |
| Input | Often forgotten |
|---|---|
| Staff time | Partner staff time, unbudgeted |
| Money | Co-financing and in-kind contributions |
| Equipment and materials | Maintenance and replacement |
| Government counterpart effort | The largest hidden input in many projects |
| Participants’ time | Almost never costed |
| Activity written as | Problem |
|---|---|
| “Capacity building” | Not an action; nobody knows what will happen |
| “Support the ministry” | Unbounded; cannot be scheduled or costed |
| “Awareness raising” | No deliverable, no verification |
| “Train 40 facilitators over 5 days” | Correct — specific, costable, schedulable |
| Output written as | Fix |
|---|---|
| Improved knowledge of farmers | That is an outcome |
| Training conducted | Name the deliverable: farmers trained, with a number |
| Support provided to schools | What was delivered, to how many? |
| 1,500 farmers trained in drip irrigation | Correct |
| Level | Phrasing | Example |
|---|---|---|
| Activity | Verb (the doing) | Train health workers |
| Output | Delivered / completed | 500 health workers trained |
| Outcome | Change of state in others | Health workers apply IMNCI protocols |
| Impact | Higher-order condition | Under-5 mortality falls |
| Level | Grammar | Test |
|---|---|---|
| Activity | Infinitive verb | Can it be scheduled? |
| Output | Past participle, with a number | Can it be ticked off? |
| Outcome | Present-tense change in others | Is the subject someone else? |
| Impact | Contributes to a higher-order change | Is it shared with other actors? |
| Bundled statement | Actually two results |
|---|---|
| Farmers trained and adopting | Output + outcome |
| Clinics built and staffed | Two outputs, different owners |
| Policy drafted and passed | Output + outcome outside your control |
| Girls enrolled and completing | Output + outcome, years apart |
| Matrix size | Consequence |
|---|---|
| 1 impact, 1 outcome, 4-6 outputs | Readable; the usual target |
| 3 outcomes | The logic no longer tracks |
| 12 outputs | It is a work plan, not a summary |
| 40 indicators | A monitoring burden that crowds out delivery |
| Vertical test finds | Which means |
|---|---|
| Outputs clearly cannot produce the outcome | A missing output, or an over-reaching outcome |
| A large unstated leap | A missing assumption |
| An output with no outcome above it | Activity for its own sake |
| An outcome with one thin output | The design is under-powered |
| Level | Statement |
|---|---|
| Output 1 | 800 adolescent girls enrolled in after-school STEM clubs |
| Activities | Set up 40 clubs; recruit & train 40 facilitators; supply kits |
| Inputs | 40 facilitators, club kits, venue agreements, ₹X budget |
| Row | Check |
|---|---|
| Output | Number, deliverable, disaggregation possible |
| Activities | Each one traceable to this output |
| Inputs | Match a budget line |
| Assumption | What must hold for these activities to produce it |
| Traceability question | Where the answer lives |
|---|---|
| What did this output cost? | Activities and inputs beneath it |
| What is our cost per participant? | Budget over output indicator |
| Is this output worth its share? | Cost against contribution to the outcome |
| Can we afford the verification? | MoV column against the M&E budget |
| Bottom half done well means | Which enables |
|---|---|
| Countable outputs | Monitoring without argument |
| Activities traceable to outputs | A work plan that matches the matrix |
| Inputs tied to the budget | Cost per output |
| A good outcome | A weak outcome |
|---|---|
| Names who changes | Says "improved situation" |
| Describes a behaviour or condition | Describes a project activity |
| Is reachable within the project | Is really an impact |
| Has one clear indicator | Would need five to capture |
| Impact statement should | Should not |
|---|---|
| Use contribution language | Claim sole causation |
| Name the higher-order change | Restate the outcome |
| Be shared with other actors | Be something only you affect |
| Sit beyond the project horizon | Be promised for the final report |
| Symptom of too many outcomes | What it usually means |
|---|---|
| Three outcomes, one team | Three projects sharing a budget |
| Outcomes that do not relate | No single theory of change |
| Each output serves one outcome | The matrix is a portfolio, not a project |
| Check the outcome statement | Test |
|---|---|
| Is the subject someone else? | Not the project team |
| Is it reachable? | Given these outputs, plausibly |
| Is it measurable? | You can name the indicator now |
| Is it one thing? | No "and" |
| Is it worth doing? | It would matter if it happened |
| Output delivered | Outcome assumed | What can break it |
|---|---|---|
| Training completed | Practice changes | No supervision, no supplies |
| Clinic built | People use it | Staffing, distance, cost, trust |
| Seeds distributed | Farmers plant them | Rain, price, competing labour |
| Law passed | It is enforced | Capacity, incentives, politics |
| Behaviour change needs | Design implication |
|---|---|
| Knowing what to do | Training or information |
| Being able to | Supplies, time, money, permission |
| Wanting to | Perceived benefit, social norm |
| A reminder or trigger | Prompts, follow-up, supervision |
| It working the first time | Support at the point of adoption |
| Result | Typically visible | So measure at |
|---|---|---|
| Outputs | During delivery | Continuously |
| Early outcomes | Late project | Midline and endline |
| Sustained outcomes | 6-24 months after | A follow-up round |
| Impact | Years | Rarely, if ever, by the project |
| Level | Statement |
|---|---|
| Impact | Contributes to higher and more resilient incomes for smallholder households |
| Outcome | Farmers in 40 villages adopt and sustain water-efficient irrigation |
| Output | 1,500 farmers trained and equipped with drip-irrigation kits |
| Row | What a reviewer checks |
|---|---|
| Impact | Contribution language; shared with others |
| Outcome | Change in farmers, not in the project |
| Output | Number, and delivered by you |
| Between output and outcome | The take-up assumption is stated |
| Sustainability depends on | Ask at design |
|---|---|
| Who pays after the project | Is there a government or user financing route? |
| Who maintains the asset | Is there a named institution? |
| Whether the behaviour is self-reinforcing | Does it pay for the adopter? |
| Whether capacity stays | What happens when staff transfer? |
| Level | Your relationship to it | What you can promise |
|---|---|---|
| Outputs | Control | A target |
| Outcome | Influence | A credible attempt, measured |
| Impact | Contribution | A plausible link, argued |
| Indicator must | Or it will |
|---|---|
| Move if the result is real | Report success regardless |
| Not move if it is not | Be gamed |
| Be affordable to collect | Quietly go unmeasured |
| Mean the same to everyone | Be contested at reporting |
| SMART element | Failing version |
|---|---|
| Specific | “Improved health” |
| Measurable | “Greater awareness” |
| Achievable | “100% coverage in year one” |
| Relevant | Measures activity, not the result |
| Time-bound | No date, so never due |
| Part | Missing means |
|---|---|
| Unit | Nobody knows what is counted |
| Baseline | Change cannot be shown |
| Target | No commitment to test against |
| Date | Never due |
| Disaggregation | Gaps stay invisible |
| Quantitative | Qualitative | |
|---|---|---|
| Answers | How much, how many | Why, how, for whom |
| Verification | Straightforward | Needs a defined method |
| Aggregation | Easy | Hard |
| Risk | Misses the mechanism | Read as anecdote |
| Proxy | Stands in for | Weak because |
|---|---|---|
| Control over spending | Empowerment | One domain of many |
| Asset ownership | Household wealth | Local and context-bound |
| Attendance | Learning | Presence is not learning |
| Handwashing station present | Handwashing practice | Presence is not use |
| Indicator count | Data-collection consequence |
|---|---|
| 1-2 per result | Manageable; usually enough |
| 4-5 per result | A dedicated M&E workload |
| 40 in total | Reporting crowds out delivery |
| Standard set | Use for |
|---|---|
| SDG indicators | National alignment and comparability |
| DHS / NFHS definitions | Health, nutrition, gender |
| WHO indicator handbooks | Health service delivery |
| IRIS+ | Impact investing portfolios |
| Sector core sets (WASH, education) | Comparability with peers |
| Result | Indicator (with baseline → target) |
|---|---|
| Output | No. of farmers trained: 0 → 1,500 by Q6 (disagg. by sex) |
| Outcome | % of trained farmers still using drip at 12 months: – → 60% |
| Impact | Mean kharif income of participant households: baseline survey → +20% |
| Level | Indicator quality check |
|---|---|
| Output | Countable from your own records |
| Outcome | Would not move if you only delivered outputs |
| Impact | Available from a national source, not your survey |
| MoV entry must name | Missing means |
|---|---|
| The source | Nobody knows where the number comes from |
| The method | It will differ between rounds |
| The frequency | It slips |
| The responsible person | Nobody does it |
| Source | Good for | Weakness |
|---|---|---|
| Project records | Outputs, cheaply | Self-reported; no comparison |
| Participant surveys | Outcomes | Cost; attrition; courtesy bias |
| Observation | Practice and quality | Observer effect; cost |
| Administrative data | Scale, continuity | Quality varies; definitions differ |
| Secondary surveys | Context and impact | Timing; not your sample |
| If verification is unaffordable | Options |
|---|---|
| Change the indicator | To something the budget can reach |
| Reduce the frequency | Endline only, not annual |
| Reduce the sample | Accept a wider confidence interval, and say so |
| Use an existing survey | Align to NFHS/PLFS timing and definitions |
| Drop the claim | Honest, and sometimes correct |
| Data type | Typical frequency | Who |
|---|---|---|
| Output records | Continuous | Field team |
| Quality observation | Quarterly | M&E officer |
| Outcome survey | Baseline, midline, endline | External enumerators |
| Impact data | Once, or from secondary sources | Analyst |
| Credibility requires | In practice |
|---|---|
| A reliable source | Not a number someone remembers |
| A consistent method | The same tool at baseline and endline |
| Retained data | Raw files kept, not just the summary |
| A traceable chain | An auditor can follow it back |
| Indicator | Means of verification |
|---|---|
| 1,500 farmers trained | Training registers, ongoing, M&E officer |
| 60% still using drip at 12 months | Follow-up sample survey of 300 farmers, year 2, external enumerators |
| +20% kharif income | Baseline & endline household survey; cross-checked with mandi records |
| Pairing check | Failing pair |
|---|---|
| Can this source produce this number? | A register that does not record sex |
| At this frequency? | An annual survey for a quarterly indicator |
| By this person? | An officer with no time allocated |
| Affordably? | A panel survey on a small M&E budget |
| Logframe column | M&E plan adds |
|---|---|
| Indicator | Exact definition, formula, disaggregation |
| MoV | Tool, sampling, training, quality checks |
| (implicit) | Analysis plan and reporting calendar |
| (implicit) | Who uses each number, for what decision |
| A real assumption is | Not |
|---|---|
| Outside your control | Something you could fund |
| Necessary for the step above | A general contextual worry |
| Specific enough to monitor | A vague sentence |
| Uncertain | Something certain either way |
| Level | Assumption sits between |
|---|---|
| Activities to outputs | Delivery conditions hold |
| Outputs to outcome | Others take up what was delivered |
| Outcome to impact | Wider conditions convert change into benefit |
| Assumption | Monitor it by |
|---|---|
| Rainfall within normal range | IMD seasonal data |
| Teacher recruitment budget not cut | State budget documents |
| Trained staff not transferred | HR records, quarterly |
| Prices remain viable | Mandi price series |
| Likely to hold? | Action |
|---|---|
| Almost certain | Note it, move on — not a real risk |
| Likely but not sure | Keep in the logframe; monitor it |
| Unlikely & important | Redesign the project to remove the dependency, or add an activity to secure it |
| Will not hold & fatal | A “killer assumption” — the project may not be viable |
| Likelihood it holds | Importance | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Almost certain | Any | Note and drop |
| Uncertain | High | Keep in the matrix; monitor |
| Unlikely | High | Killer — redesign or stop |
| Unlikely | Low | Note; it does not sink you |
| Killer assumption found | Response |
|---|---|
| A required policy will not pass | Redesign around the current policy |
| A partner will not have capacity | Add capacity building as an output |
| The market price will not support adoption | Change the intervention |
| None of these is possible | Say so before signing |
| If you can influence it | It belongs in |
|---|---|
| Partner capacity | An output |
| Community willingness | An activity (engagement) |
| Staff turnover in your own team | Management, not the matrix |
| Data availability from your own MIS | The MoV column |
| Assumption | Its risk |
|---|---|
| Rainfall is normal | Drought reduces yields |
| Staff are not transferred | Key staff leave mid-project |
| Policy stays supportive | Policy reverses |
| Communities accept the approach | Resistance blocks delivery |
| Score | Meaning | Caution |
|---|---|---|
| Likelihood 1-5 | How probable | Judgement, not calculation |
| Impact 1-5 | How damaging | Depends on what you value |
| Product 1-25 | Rough priority | Not a measurement |
| Colour grid | For communication | Colours drift over time |
| Response | Example | Watch |
|---|---|---|
| Treat | Train a wider pool of staff | Costs; put it in the budget |
| Transfer | Insurance, or a partner contract | Transfers cost, not accountability |
| Tolerate | Accept and monitor | Needs a trigger and a plan B |
| Terminate | Drop the activity | Rarely used; sometimes correct |
| Category | Often under-registered |
|---|---|
| Contextual | Slow-onset policy shifts |
| Programmatic | The intervention simply not working |
| Institutional / fiduciary | Partner capacity, not just fraud |
| Safeguarding | Harm to participants from the project itself |
| Register entry needs | Otherwise |
|---|---|
| An owner | Nobody monitors it |
| A trigger | Nobody notices it materialising |
| A response | The team improvises |
| A review date | It is written once and filed |
| Review moment | What changes |
|---|---|
| Quarterly review | Scores, new risks, closed risks |
| Annual planning | Whether the design still holds |
| After an incident | What the register missed |
| At handover | Who owns each risk now |
| Risk | L×I | Response | Owner |
|---|---|---|---|
| Drought cuts yields, weakening the income case | 3×4 | Treat: promote water-efficient varieties; tolerate residual | Field lead |
| Trained staff transferred out | 4×3 | Treat: train a wider pool; brief supervisors | M&E officer |
| Partner financial controls weak | 2×5 | Transfer/treat: audits, milestone disbursement | Finance |
| Register column | What good looks like |
|---|---|
| Risk | A sentence with a cause and an effect |
| L x I | Scored, and reviewed since |
| Response | A named action, not a sentiment |
| Owner | A person, not a department |
| Trigger | An observable with a threshold |
| Step | Skipping it produces |
|---|---|
| Theory of change | A matrix with no argument behind it |
| Left column | Indicators for results nobody agreed |
| Assumptions | A design that hides its bets |
| Indicators | Unmeasurable results |
| Means of verification | Indicators nobody can collect |
| Built alone | Built in a workshop |
|---|---|
| Internally consistent | Contested and improved |
| Nobody else owns it | Delivery team can explain it |
| Assumptions are the writer’s | Assumptions come from people who know the context |
| Fast | Slow, and worth it |
| At each arrow ask | Fail means |
|---|---|
| Is the level below sufficient? | A missing output or activity |
| Plus its assumptions? | A missing assumption |
| Is anything redundant? | An activity with no output above it |
| Would a sceptic agree? | The logic needs stating better, or is wrong |
| Row check | Common failure |
|---|---|
| Indicator measures the result | It measures the activity instead |
| MoV can supply it | A survey nobody will fund |
| Assumption is external | It is something the project could do |
| All four are about the same thing | The row has drifted |
| Reviewer finds | Reads as |
|---|---|
| Outputs written as outcomes | Over-claiming |
| No baselines | Not ready to start |
| Three outcomes | No focus |
| Assumptions that are really excuses | A defensive design |
| Unaffordable MoV | The M&E will not happen |
| Revision moment | What usually changes |
|---|---|
| Baseline completed | Targets, now that the starting point is known |
| Inception review | Activities and assumptions |
| Mid-term | Indicators that do not work; dropped outputs |
| Context shift | Assumptions, and possibly the outcome |
| Result | Indicator | MoV | Assumption |
|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome: farmers adopt & sustain drip irrigation | 60% of trained farmers still using drip at 12 months | Follow-up survey of 300, year 2 | Water availability and crop prices stay viable |
| Read the row across | And check |
|---|---|
| Result to indicator | Does it measure this, or something nearby? |
| Indicator to MoV | Can this source produce it, at this cost? |
| MoV to assumption | Is the assumption about the world, not the data? |
| Critique | What it gets right |
|---|---|
| Change is not linear | The chain implies a tidiness that rarely exists |
| It crowds out the uncountable | What is measured gets attention |
| It locks in the plan | When treated as a contract |
| It serves the donor | It is written upward in the funder’s language |
| Non-linear feature | Logframe handles it |
|---|---|
| Feedback loops | Poorly — the chain runs one way |
| Emergent outcomes | Not at all — results are pre-specified |
| Unintended effects | Only if someone anticipated them |
| Multiple pathways | One pathway per matrix |
| Easy to count | Harder, often more important |
|---|---|
| People trained | Whether practice changed |
| Meetings held | Whether a decision shifted |
| Materials distributed | Whether they were used |
| Committees formed | Whether they have any power |
| Rigidity shows as | Better practice |
|---|---|
| Penalising a team for adapting | Revision at agreed review points |
| Reporting against a plan known to be wrong | Logged changes with reasons |
| Refusing to drop a failing output | A stated stop-or-change rule |
| Targets set before the baseline | Targets confirmed after baseline |
| Written upward means | Partial correction |
|---|---|
| Donor categories frame the results | Build the logic with participants first |
| Accountability runs to the funder | Add downward reporting and feedback |
| Local knowledge is compressed out | Keep the theory of change alongside |
| English, and a technical register | Produce a local-language version |
| Approach | Good when… |
|---|---|
| Outcome Mapping | Change runs through many actors’ behaviour; boundaries are fuzzy |
| Outcome Harvesting | Outcomes can’t be predicted in advance; you work backwards |
| Most Significant Change | You want participant-defined, story-based evidence |
| Adaptive / DDD | The problem is complex and the path must be discovered |
| Approach | Use when | Trade-off |
|---|---|---|
| Outcome Mapping | Change runs through many actors | Harder to report as targets |
| Outcome Harvesting | Outcomes cannot be predicted | Retrospective; needs verification |
| Most Significant Change | You want participant judgement | Not aggregable |
| Contribution analysis | Attribution is impossible | Effortful; needs a good theory |
| Use it well by | Concretely |
|---|---|
| Building the logic first | Theory of change before the matrix |
| Keeping it small | One outcome, few outputs, few indicators |
| Being honest in column four | Real assumptions, killers flagged |
| Revising it | At agreed review points, logged |
| Holding it lightly | It is a summary, not the project |
| Funder | Calls the outcome row | Distinctive ask |
|---|---|---|
| EU / EuropeAid | Specific objective | Intervention logic; sources of verification |
| FCDO | Outcome | Annual milestones; separate theory of change |
| USAID | Purpose / IR | Results framework plus activity MEL plan |
| UN agencies | Outcome | Alignment to country framework outcomes |
| Tool | Good at | Watch |
|---|---|---|
| Spreadsheet | Everything, cheaply | Version control |
| Word table | The proposal annex | Drifts from the spreadsheet |
| M&E platform | Live tracking, dashboards | Cost; lock-in; setup time |
| Kobo / ODK plus a dashboard | Field data collection | Needs someone to maintain it |
| Column | Must contain |
|---|---|
| Results | One result per row, in the right grammar for its level |
| Indicators | Unit, baseline, target, date, disaggregation |
| MoV | Source, method, frequency, responsible person |
| Assumptions | External conditions, monitored, not things you control |
| Column | Reviewer’s quick test |
|---|---|
| Results | Is each row in the right grammar for its level? |
| Indicators | Does every one have a baseline and a date? |
| MoV | Is there a named person and a real method? |
| Assumptions | Are they external, and is any of them a killer? |
| Ten-minute test | Fails if |
|---|---|
| Left column reads as a story | You have to explain the jumps |
| Exactly one outcome | There are three |
| Baselines and sources everywhere | Several say TBD |
| Assumptions external | Some are the project’s own job |
| Killers flagged | The riskiest one is unlisted |
| Practice step | What you learn |
|---|---|
| Draft the left column alone | Where your own logic is vague |
| Add assumptions | How much the design depends on others |
| Add indicators | Which results are unmeasurable as written |
| Add MoV | Which indicators you cannot afford |
| Have someone attack it | What you cannot see in your own work |
| The one-page bet | Column |
|---|---|
| What we are betting on | Results |
| How we will know | Indicators |
| Where the proof comes from | Means of verification |
| What must hold for the bet to pay | Assumptions |
| If you remember | The one-line version |
|---|---|
| Rows | Control, influence, contribute |
| Indicators | Unit, baseline, target, date, disaggregation |
| MoV | Source, method, frequency, person |
| Assumptions | External, material, monitorable |
| The whole thing | A bet, stated on one page |