Target Audience: Development practitioners, environmental activists, policy makers, researchers, and community organizers working on climate and sustainability issues
Prerequisites: Basic understanding of environmental issues helpful but not required
Materials Needed: Laptops/tablets for accessing climate data, calculators, notebooks, colored pens for graphing
Learning objectives
By the end of this workshop, participants will be able to:
Explain the scientific basis of climate change using IPCC framework and terminology
Interpret key climate indicators and assess temperature/precipitation trends
Analyze global and regional emissions patterns with focus on South Asian context
Understand climate scenarios and their implications for development planning
Apply climate science knowledge to evaluate policies and interventions
Part 1: The scientific foundation - understanding climate vs weather
15 minutes
The global climate reality (2024 data)
Global Temperature: 2024 was about 1.55°C above the 1850-1900 baseline, the first calendar year above 1.5°C; long-term warming is estimated at 1.34-1.41°C (WMO, State of the Global Climate 2024)
South Asian Impact: India's average temperature rose by around 0.7°C during 1901-2018 (Ministry of Earth Sciences, 2020)
Critical Threshold: 1.5°C warming could trigger irreversible changes to climate systems
Time Window: from the start of 2025 the remaining carbon budget for a 50% chance of 1.5°C was about 130 GtCO₂, a little over three years of current emissions (Indicators of Global Climate Change 2024)
Climate vs weather: Getting the basics right
Essential distinction
Weather: Short-term atmospheric conditions (hours to weeks) in a specific location
Example: "Mumbai received 200mm rainfall yesterday"
Highly variable and difficult to predict beyond 2 weeks
Climate: Long-term average weather patterns (30+ years) across regions
Example: "Mumbai gets most of its year's rain in the June to September monsoon"
Predictable patterns that enable agriculture and urban planning
Climate Change: Long-term shifts in climate patterns due to human activities
Changes in temperature, precipitation, extreme events over decades
Driven primarily by greenhouse gas emissions since 1750
Quick check: Climate vs weather (5 minutes)
Classify these statements as Weather (W) or Climate (C):
Delhi's Safdarjung station recorded 46.8°C on 29 May 2024, its highest in 79 years ___
The Gangetic plains get most of their annual rainfall from the southwest monsoon ___
Cyclone Biparjoy hit Gujarat coast in June 2023 ___
Western Ghats receive 2,500mm+ rainfall during southwest monsoon ___
Himachal Pradesh expects snowfall this winter ___
466 glaciers in the Chenab, Parbati and Baspa basins lost about 21% of their area after 1962 (Kulkarni et al., 2007) ___
Answers: W, C, W, C, W, C
Part 2: The greenhouse effect - natural vs enhanced
20 minutes
Understanding Earth's energy balance
The natural greenhouse effect
Essential for Life: Without greenhouse gases, Earth's average temperature would be -18°C (currently +15°C)
How It Works:
Solar Energy In: Sun sends shortwave radiation to Earth
Surface Absorption: Earth's surface absorbs energy and warms up
Greenhouse Trapping: Greenhouse gases absorb and re-emit some radiation back to surface
Natural Balance: Keeps Earth warm enough for liquid water and life
The Enhanced Greenhouse Effect: Human activities add extra greenhouse gases, trapping more heat and disrupting Earth's energy balance. This is what drives climate change.
Total Emissions: Third-largest emitter of fossil CO₂, about 8% of the global total in 2023
Per Capita: 0.6 tonnes of carbon a person in 2023, under half the global 1.3
Historical Responsibility: About 3% of cumulative fossil CO₂ emissions, 1850-2023
Growth Rate: Fossil CO₂ projected to rise 3.7% in 2024 (Friedlingstein et al., Earth System Science Data, 2025)
Part 3: The IPCC framework - assessing climate science
20 minutes
What is the IPCC?
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Established: 1988 by UNEP and WMO
Purpose: Assess scientific literature on climate change for policymakers
Structure: 3 Working Groups + Task Force on National Greenhouse Gas Inventories
Working Group I: Physical science basis of climate change
Working Group II: Impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability
Working Group III: Mitigation of climate change
Process: Thousands of scientists review and synthesize research every 6-8 years
Indian Participation: Indian scientists served as authors and reviewers across AR6 (2021-2023)
Understanding IPCC language & confidence levels
IPCC Confidence Framework: The IPCC uses specific language to communicate certainty levels based on evidence quality and scientific agreement.
Confidence levels
Very High: Strong evidence and high agreement (confidence is a qualitative judgement in AR5 and AR6, not a probability)
High: Strong evidence and agreement, with some gaps
Medium: Medium evidence or medium agreement
Low: Limited evidence or low agreement
Likelihood terms
Virtually Certain: 99-100% probability
Very Likely: 90-100% probability
Likely: 66-100% probability
Unlikely: 0-33% probability
IPCC statement analysis (8 minutes)
Analyze these actual IPCC AR6 statements and discuss their policy implications:
Statement 1: "It is unequivocal that human influence has warmed the atmosphere, ocean and land." (WG1, SPM A.1)
Statement 2: "Climate change including increases in frequency and intensity of extremes have reduced food and water security, hindering efforts to meet Sustainable Development Goals (high confidence)." (WG2, SPM B.1.3)
Statement 3: "Pathways limiting global warming to 1.5°C with no or limited overshoot would require rapid and far-reaching transitions in energy, land, urban and infrastructure (including transport and buildings), and industrial systems (high confidence)." (Special Report on 1.5°C, 2018, SPM C.2)
Discussion Questions:
What does "unequivocal" mean in scientific terms?
How should policymakers respond to "likely" predictions?
What does "rapid and far-reaching" imply for development strategies?
Global warming of about 0.9-2.3°C by 2081-2100 relative to 1850-1900 (IPCC AR5 likely range)
The pathway most consistent with the Paris goals
Requires immediate, massive emissions cuts
RCP4.5 (Moderate Climate Action):
Global warming of about 1.7-3.2°C by 2081-2100 (IPCC AR5 likely range)
India: the lower end of the 2.4-4.4°C end-of-century range (Ministry of Earth Sciences, 2020)
Full implementation of current national pledges points to 2.3-2.5°C this century, and current policies to up to 2.8°C, both inside this range (UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2025)
RCP8.5 (High Emissions/Business as Usual):
Global warming of about 3.2-5.4°C by 2081-2100 (IPCC AR5 likely range)
India: about 4.4°C warmer than 1976-2005 by 2070-2099 (Ministry of Earth Sciences, 2020)
Continued fossil fuel dependence
India-specific projections (Ministry of Earth Sciences, 2020, drawing on CMIP5 models)
Temperature Changes by the end of the century:
2.4-4.4°C warmer than 1976-2005, across RCP4.5 and RCP8.5
Heat waves will be longer, more intense, and more frequent
Hindu Kush Himalaya warmed about 1.3°C during 1951-2014; about 5.2°C more projected under RCP8.5
Precipitation Changes:
Monsoon rainfall: fell about 6% over 1951-2015; mean and variability projected to rise
Monsoon intensity: More extreme rainfall events
Daily rainfall extremes: projected to increase substantially
Extreme Events:
Heat waves: 3-4 times more frequent by the end of the century (RCP8.5)
Flooding: Increased urban and coastal flood risk
Cyclones: Intensity in the North Indian Ocean projected to rise
Droughts: Frequency, intensity and area projected to rise (RCP8.5)
Observed and projected changes for India (Ministry of Earth Sciences, 2020)
Climate Variable
Observed Trend
Direction
End-of-century Projection (2070-2099 vs 1976-2005)
Temperature
+0.7°C, 1901-2018
Rising
About +4.4°C (RCP8.5)
Monsoon Rainfall
Summer monsoon down about 6%, 1951-2015
More dry spells, more intense wet spells
Mean and variability projected to rise (RCP8.5)
Extreme Heat Days
Warmest day of the year up about 0.63°C, 1986-2015
Rising
Summer heatwaves 3-4 times as frequent (RCP8.5)
Sea Level Rise
North Indian Ocean 1.06-1.75 mm/year (1874-2004), 3.3 mm/year (1993-2017)
Accelerating
About 300 mm steric rise by 2100 (RCP4.5, vs 1986-2005)
Glacial Retreat
Retreat across much of the Hindu Kush Himalaya; Karakoram glaciers largely stable
Continuing
Hindu Kush Himalaya about 5.2°C warmer (RCP8.5)
Critical Insight: South Asia is a climate hotspot. More than 800 million people live in places projected to become moderate or severe hotspots by 2050 under a carbon-intensive scenario (World Bank, South Asia's Hotspots, 2018).
Historical Trends: How has temperature/rainfall changed since 1980?
Extreme Events: What climate extremes has your region experienced?
Future Projections: What changes are expected by 2050?
Development Implications: How might these changes affect agriculture, water, health?
Sharing (5 minutes): Present your key findings to the group
Summary
The evidence that human activity is warming the climate is strong. IPCC frameworks and regional projections give adaptation and mitigation planning in South Asia its scientific basis.
Resources for continued learning
IPCC Reports & Summaries:
IPCC AR6 Summary for Policymakers: Latest scientific consensus (2021-2023)
IPCC Regional Fact Sheets: South Asia-specific findings
Environmental Justice 101: Equity frameworks and environmental decision-making
Data Literacy 101: Skills for analyzing climate and environmental data
Community-Led Development 101: Participatory approaches to climate planning
This handout is part of the ImpactMojo 101 Knowledge Series Licensed under CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 • Free to use with attribution • www.impactmojo.in
For the complete Climate Change 101 course with detailed climate models, regional case studies, and advanced data analysis exercises, visit the ImpactMojo platform.
