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The Evidence Map

Development is full of confident claims about "what works." An evidence gap map asks a harder question: how strong is the evidence, and where is it missing? Here's how to read one — and an interactive map you can click through.

What it is

A map of what we know — and what we don't

An evidence gap map (EGM) is a grid. Down the side: the things you could do — interventions. Across the top: the things you might change — outcomes. In each cell, a bubble shows how much rigorous evidence exists for that pairing, and how confident we can be in it. Big confident bubbles mean "well studied, works." Empty cells — the gaps — mean "nobody really knows yet." The empty cells are often the most important thing on the map.

Read this first. The map below is an illustrative teaching example for the education-and-development sector. The pattern of confidence reflects the broad direction of well-known evidence syntheses, but the bubble sizes are simplified for clarity — they are not exact study counts. For the real, continuously-updated maps, use the authoritative sources linked at the bottom (3ie, Cochrane, the Campbell Collaboration, J-PAL).
Colour = confidence: High Mixed / moderate Weak / contested Evidence gap Size = volume of evidence. Click a bubble.
Tip: the empty cells are often the most important thing on the map.

Click any bubble in the map above to see what the evidence says about that intervention–outcome pairing, how confident we can be, and where to read more.

How to read it

Four moves of a careful reader

01

Find the big green bubbles

Well-studied pairings with consistent effects. This is where "what works" is on solid ground — act here with confidence.

02

Distrust a single study

A small bubble is one or two trials. One striking result is a hypothesis, not a finding. Confidence comes from replication.

03

Hunt for the empty cells

The gaps are where confident claims outrun the evidence. "Everyone knows X works" over an empty cell is a research agenda, not a fact.

04

Mind the context

Evidence travels imperfectly. What worked in one country, scale, or population may not transfer. The map narrows uncertainty; it never removes it.

The real thing

Authoritative, continuously-updated maps

This page teaches the idea. For live evidence on a real decision, go to the source — these institutions build and maintain rigorous evidence gap maps and systematic reviews.